Inter
Serie A · ELO profile, season forecast & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per matchday: the club's ELO rating after that round. Top-flight ratings are season-scoped (every club re-seeds at the start of a season, then the rating updates after every result), so trajectories are shown one season at a time. Second-division ratings carry over between seasons with regression to the mean. Hover a point for the date and league position behind it.
Champions League 2026-27
#10 in the title oddsTop 24 counts every league-phase finish inside the knockout places, so the eight clubs that skip the play-off round are in it too. Top 8 is the separate direct route to the last 16. Points and finish are league-phase numbers, conditional on playing it.
10,000 simulated seasons · updated Sep 04, 2026.
Season simulation
2026-27 season forecast
Projected: #1 of 20 76.5 expected pts · currently 6 pts after 2 matches
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date (the dashed stretch covers rounds still to be played). Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
2025-26: what the model simulated, and what happened
🏆 Final: #1 of 20 in Serie A 87 pts · 27W-6D-5L · GD +54
The line is the club's average finishing position across 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations, re-run at each date. Lower is better.
Full Serie A simulation: every club's odds and the complete rank timeline →
How predictable is Inter?
On script 2025-26 · 32 predicted matches
We grade every match forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade. Say 70% and it does not, bad grade, and the more confident we were, the bigger the penalty. Averaged over the season, Inter's results were 42.9% easier to call than the Serie A average. How this is measured.
| Market | Inter | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 78.1% | 52.5% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.9% | 50.3% |
Share of predicted matches our as-published prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average over the same season.
Season by season
| Season | League | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | #2 | 1522 | 1552 | 1552 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | #1 | 1524 | 1756 | 1741 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | #1 | 1502 | 1707 | 1684 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | #1 | 1520 | 1812 | 1745 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | #2 | 1529 | 1633 | 1633 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | #2 | 1523 | 1715 | 1686 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | #1 | 1519 | 1769 | 1743 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | #1 | 1523 | 1695 | 1695 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | #6 | 1482 | 1634 | 1596 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | #6 | 1522 | 1677 | 1593 |
| 2016-17 | Serie A | #7 | 1480 | 1652 | 1526 |
| 2015-16 | Serie A | #6 | 1518 | 1637 | 1531 |
| 2014-15 | Serie A | #5 | 1502 | 1600 | 1572 |
ELO position is the rating rank inside the league at the last computed matchday of that season.
Recent matches: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | vs Verona | W Inter 89.1% · draw 6.4% | D ✗ |
| May 09, 2026 | at Lazio | W Inter 58.8% · draw 19.7% | W ✓ |
| May 03, 2026 | vs Parma | W Inter 83.1% · draw 9.5% | W ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Torino | W Inter 68.1% · draw 15.9% | D ✗ |
| Apr 17, 2026 | vs Cagliari | W Inter 81.8% · draw 10.2% | W ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Como | W Inter 41.9% · draw 23.6% | W ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Roma | W Inter 70.3% · draw 15.0% | W ✓ |
| Mar 22, 2026 | at Fiorentina | W Inter 57.8% · draw 20.1% | D ✗ |
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Atalanta | W Inter 50.4% · draw 20.0% | D ✗ |
| Mar 08, 2026 | at Milan | W Inter 50.0% · draw 23.0% | L ✗ |
Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0
The Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:
Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/football/clubs/inter">Serie A title odds & club ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)Or embed the live, self-updating widget (the credit link is built in):
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