Serie A 2025-2026: Lazio vs Atalanta Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Lazio

Home Team
10%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
81%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 26.4

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Lazio D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)

Atalanta W D W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.22
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.75
# Clean Sheets: 2

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.49
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.26
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are clear favourites here, with an 81.0% probability of taking all three points away from eighth‑placed Lazio, who are given just a 10.0% chance of a home win (10.0% draw). The model also leans towards a tight affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 57.0% implied probability (43.0% for over 2.5). In the current table Atalanta sit 7th on 39 points, six ahead of Lazio on 33, and this looks like a key battle in the race for European spots.

Match Analysis

Lazio come in off a mixed three‑game stretch: a spirited 2-2 draw away at Juventus, a narrow 3-2 home win over Genoa, and a flat 0-0 at Lecce. Those results underline their inconsistency – capable of scoring in bunches at home, but also struggling to create away. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded, with an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.218 for and 1.754 against, suggesting they’ve been second‑best in chance quality more often than not, even when results have been acceptable. Atalanta, by contrast, look slightly more stable. They’ve beaten Cremonese 2-1 and Parma 4-0 at home, either side of a 0-0 at Como. That’s seven goals scored and just one conceded in their two wins, plus a solid away draw. Over their last five matches they average 1.0 goal scored and only 0.8 conceded, with three clean sheets in that span. Interestingly, their xG numbers – 1.486 created and 2.26 conceded per game – hint that they sometimes allow more chances than the raw goals suggest, but their defensive unit has been efficient at limiting actual damage.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction is supported by the recent patterns of both sides. Two of Lazio’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Juventus, 3-2 vs Genoa), but the 0-0 at Lecce fits the more modest averages of 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG also pointing to competitive but not wildly open matches. Atalanta have had two games under 2.5 (0-0 at Como, 2-1 vs Cremonese) and one over (4-0 vs Parma) in their last three, and their blend of solid defensive numbers and just 1.0 goal scored on average makes a low‑scoring game a realistic expectation.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction is for around 9.0 total corners, suggesting a moderately active game rather than a siege. Lazio’s last three matches produced corner counts of 1-8, 5-3 and 1-4, showing they can be out‑cornered badly away from home and only occasionally dominate. Atalanta’s recent corner figures – 13-2 vs Cremonese, 1-7 at Como and 6-9 vs Parma – show big swings depending on game state, but their willingness to attack in wide areas supports the idea of both sides generating enough pressure for roughly nine predicted corners overall.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.43, pointing to a game with a fair but not extreme amount of goalmouth action. Lazio’s recent shot numbers (9, 14, and 6 taken; 34, 16, and 15 faced) show they often allow plenty of efforts against, especially away, which feeds into the shots prediction. Atalanta have produced 29 and 21 shots in their two home wins, with 6 away at Como, and their higher xG created (1.486) aligns with a side that should contribute significantly to the expected shots tally.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s edge comes from their firmer defensive record, superior league position, and recent run of three clean sheets in five, all reflected in the 81.0% win probability. Lazio’s vulnerability in chance prevention, shown by conceding 34 shots at Juventus and an xG against of 1.754, could be decisive. A key factor to watch will be whether Atalanta’s attack can convert their likely shot and territory advantage into goals before Lazio’s inconsistent but dangerous forward line can respond.

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