Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Udinese Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Napoli

Home Team
65%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.2
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Napoli W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)

Udinese L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.40
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 3

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.65
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are clear favourites at home, with a 65.0% chance of victory against Udinese’s 17.0%, and the model pointing firmly towards a home win. The game leans towards an under 2.5 prediction (46.0% for over, so edge on the under), suggesting a tighter scoreline despite Napoli’s attacking quality. In the table, Napoli sit 2nd on 73 points, already assured of a Champions League place, while 10th‑placed Udinese (50 points) are safely mid‑table.

Match Analysis

Napoli come in from a mixed three‑game run: a professional 3-0 away win at bottom‑side Pisa, a chaotic 3-2 home defeat to Bologna, and a cagey 0-0 at Como. That sequence underlines their volatility – capable of blitzing weaker opponents, but also vulnerable when games become open. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures (1.398 for, 1.358 against) suggesting relatively even chance creation but better finishing and three clean sheets hinting at improved defensive concentration. Udinese, sitting mid‑table, arrive with confidence from two clean‑sheet wins – 2-0 against Cagliari away and 2-0 versus Torino at home – softened only by a narrow 1-0 home loss to Cremonese. Their attack has been productive of late, averaging 2.4 goals in the last five games, although their underlying xG of 1.584 for and 1.654 against shows they sometimes score more than they create and give up decent chances. That slight defensive looseness, masked by two recent clean sheets, could be exposed by Napoli’s quality in the final third.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction given just 46.0% probability, so a low‑scoring encounter is marginally favoured. Two of Napoli’s last three matches went under 2.5 goals (3-0, 3-2, 0-0 – only the Bologna game went over), while all three of Udinese’s stayed under (1-0, 2-0, 2-0). Combined with Napoli’s 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded and Udinese’s 2.4 scored / 1.0 conceded against xG figures that hover around 1.4–1.6 at both ends, the numbers point to a controlled game rather than a shootout, especially with Napoli likely to manage the tempo at home.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction is for a moderate total, with 9.48 expected corners overall. Napoli’s last three outings produced 7, 8 and 5 corners (they dominated the counts against Pisa and Bologna), indicating steady but not explosive output from wide areas. Udinese’s games yielded 10, 12 and 7 corners, reflecting a side that allows opponents territory but also pushes forward enough to win set‑pieces. Given Napoli’s front‑foot style at home and Udinese’s willingness to absorb pressure, the predicted corners figure looks in line with a match where the hosts do most of the attacking but without relentless end‑to‑end play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.16, suggesting a game with a healthy but not frantic number of attempts. Napoli’s last three matches saw them take 10, 14 and 8 shots, while allowing 4, 10 and 16 – numbers consistent with a team that generally controls games but can be pegged back by strong opposition. Udinese have been more erratic: 10, 9 and 19 shots for, with 7, 22 and 9 against, showing they can be both dominant and heavily out‑shot depending on the opponent. With both sides’ xG per game in the 1.4–1.6 range, this shots prediction fits a match where Napoli create the clearer chances but Udinese still threaten sporadically.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Napoli wins by X goals. Negative = Udinese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Napoli vs Udinese with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Napoli vs Udinese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.72 in Napoli’s favour, meaning the hosts are projected to win by around one goal. Across their last three games, Napoli’s goal differences were +3, -1 and 0, while Udinese posted -1, +2 and +2 – both sides showing they can win by clear margins but also lose tight contests. Marrying that with a 65.0% home‑win probability and Napoli’s superior league position and defensive record (36 goals conceded versus Udinese’s 47), the expected spread of just under a goal feels consistent with a controlled but not runaway home victory.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s edge comes from their higher overall quality, stronger defensive numbers and home advantage, all backed up by the +0.72 expected spread and the clear win probability gap. Udinese’s recent form means they should not be brushed aside, but their xG against and mid‑table status underline the difference between the sides. The key factor to watch will be how Udinese cope with Napoli’s pressure between the lines; if the visitors can keep the game compact early on, the under 2.5 angle – and a narrow home win – looks very much on the cards.

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