Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Parma

Home Team
48%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
28%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: -0.0

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Parma L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Sassuolo L L W D W

  • Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

xG (avg) 0.74
xGA (avg) 1.46
Clean Sheets 2

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 2.28
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Parma are slight favourites at home, with a 48.0% chance of taking all three points against a Sassuolo side given a 28.0% win probability and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 52.0% implied probability and both teams expected to score (53.0% chance of “goal”). In the table, Sassuolo sit 11th on 49 points, while Parma are 13th on 42 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation scrap below.

Match Analysis

Parma arrive on a three-match losing streak, but the results tell only part of the story. They were well beaten away to Como (0-1, only 2 shots and 2-15 corners), more competitive at home in a 2-3 defeat to Roma, and then contained by Inter in a 0-2 loss. Across the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with 0.74 expected goals for and 1.458 against, plus two clean sheets that hint at a defence capable of tightening up when needed – even if their attack remains blunt. Sassuolo’s recent form is also mixed: a strong 2-0 home win over Milan has been followed by back-to-back defeats against Torino (1-2 away) and Lecce (2-3 at home). They’ve averaged just 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five, with 1.094 xG for but a worrying 2.278 xG against, suggesting they are allowing plenty of chances and relying on last-ditch defending and goalkeeping. That defensive vulnerability, away from home and against a Parma side desperate to finish strongly, tilts the balance slightly towards the hosts despite Sassuolo’s higher league position.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction is marginally favoured, with a 48.0% probability for over 2.5 goals and therefore a slight edge towards under 2.5. Two of Parma’s last three games went over 2.5 (the 2-3 vs Roma and 0-1 vs Como/0-2 vs Inter combining for one under, two overs), while Sassuolo also saw two of their last three go over (3 and 5 total goals vs Torino and Lecce, but 2 vs Milan). Parma’s low attacking xG (0.74) and Sassuolo’s modest 0.8 goals per game support the idea of a cagey contest, even if one clear chance either way could flip that over 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.19, pointing to a game with a steady but not extreme flow of attacks. Parma’s recent corner numbers (2, 3 and 3 won, while heavily out-cornered 15-2 by Como) suggest they don’t generate many set-pieces of their own, especially away but even at home. Sassuolo, meanwhile, have been in mid-range territory (2, 5 and 2 corners for in their last three), so the corners prediction of around ten overall fits two sides who build more through measured possession than relentless wing play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With 25.78 expected shots in total, the shots prediction points to a reasonably open game without becoming end-to-end chaos. Parma have recently produced 2, 11 and 4 shots, struggling badly at Como but showing more initiative at home against Roma. Sassuolo’s last three show a more consistent attacking output (13, 13 and 15 shots), which, combined with their higher xG (1.094), suggests they may edge the shot count even if Parma edge the scoreboard.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Parma wins by X goals. Negative = Sassuolo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Parma vs Sassuolo with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Parma vs Sassuolo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is effectively level at -0.0, which aligns with how tight this fixture looks on paper despite Parma’s status as favourites. Parma’s last three results show a combined -4 goal difference (0-1, 2-3, 0-2), while Sassuolo sit at -1 over the same stretch (2-0, 1-2, 2-3), marginally more competitive. With the expected spread essentially even, home advantage and Parma’s slightly better defensive metrics in recent weeks explain why the win probability still leans towards the Gialloblù.

Final Prediction

Parma’s edge comes from playing at home, a slightly more stable defensive record and the urgency of protecting their mid-table status, even if their recent scoreboard suggests fragility. Sassuolo’s openness at the back and high xG conceded could be decisive if Parma can turn limited chances into goals. The key factor to watch will be how often Sassuolo can expose Parma’s back line versus how well Parma can exploit Sassuolo’s tendency to give up clear opportunities.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel