Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Verona Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Parma

Home Team
38%
VS

Verona

Away Team
38%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Parma W L L D D

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 0)

Verona D L L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.73
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.14
# Clean Sheets: 3

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.80
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.86
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

The model leans very slightly towards a Parma home win, with the hosts and Verona each given a 38.0% chance of victory and a 24.0% chance of a draw, so this is effectively rated as a toss‑up. Parma sit 14th on 26 points, while Verona are 20th with 15 points and deep in relegation trouble, which tilts the predicted result marginally towards the home side. The game is expected to be tight on the scoreboard, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite only a modest 46.0% chance of going over 2.5.

Match Analysis

Parma come into this on a mixed run: a morale‑boosting 1–0 away win at Bologna bookends heavy defeats, 1–4 at home to Juventus and 0–4 away to Atalanta. Those three matches underline their volatility: they can keep things very tight, as shown by the win in Bologna, but when they concede the first goal they tend to unravel. Over their last five games, Parma have scored only 0.4 goals per match on average while conceding 1.4, backed up by low attacking xG (0.732) and a very high 2.14 xG conceded, which suggests they allow opponents plenty of good chances even when the scoreline doesn’t always show it. Verona’s recent form is even more worrying: a 0–0 home draw against Pisa sandwiched between a 0–4 defeat at Cagliari and a 1–3 home loss to Udinese. They’ve failed to score in two of their last three, and sit bottom with the league’s worst goal difference (–23), having lost 13 of 24 games. Their last five matches show slightly better attacking output than Parma (0.8 goals per game and 0.804 xG), but they concede 2.0 goals per game on average from 1.86 xG against, underlining a fragile defence. With both sides struggling in attack but Verona leaking more, the balance narrowly favours Parma at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction assigned just a 46.0% probability, pointing towards a low‑scoring contest. Two of Parma’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (1–4 vs Juventus, 0–4 vs Atalanta), but overall their recent averages – 0.4 scored, 1.4 conceded, and only 0.732 xG created – do not suggest sustained attacking threat. Verona have also seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (0–4 and 1–3), yet their five‑game averages of 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, alongside modest xG for both sides, support the under 2.5 call in what could be a tense relegation scrap.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Verona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.19 total corners, in line with the recent numbers from both teams. Parma’s last three matches produced 9, 8 and 15 corners, while Verona’s delivered 12, 9 and 11, showing that even in low‑scoring games, both sides still generate a decent amount of set‑piece activity. With both teams often defending deep and relying on crosses and second balls for territory rather than fluent combination play, that style naturally feeds into a predicted corners total around the 9–10 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.23 total attempts, reflecting two teams that allow plenty of efforts against them. Parma’s last three games saw 21, 25 and 36 combined shots, while Verona’s produced 15, 22 and 27, so an overall shots prediction in the low‑to‑mid 20s fits the trend. Given both sides’ xG profiles – relatively low in attack but high against – we can anticipate a game where Verona and Parma each create some volume without necessarily producing many clear‑cut chances.

Final Prediction

Parma’s slight edge comes from playing at home and facing the league’s bottom side, whose defence has been consistently more porous in both goals and xG conceded. If Parma can reproduce the defensive discipline from their 1–0 win at Bologna, their greater solidity could be enough. A key factor to watch will be which team wins the midfield duels; whoever controls that area should dictate shots and set‑pieces in what looks set to be a tight, low‑scoring battle.

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