Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Sassuolo Prediction - 8 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Torino

Home Team
41%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
32%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.4
Expected Spread: -0.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Torino L D D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Sassuolo W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.34
Clean Sheets 2

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 0.91
xGA (avg) 1.76
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are marginally favoured at home, with a 41.0% chance of victory against Sassuolo’s 32.0%, and a 27.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a low‑scoring home win, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 55.0% implied probability and even suggesting “no goal” (both teams not to score) at 50.0%. In the table, Sassuolo are 10th on 49 points, while Torino sit 13th on 41 points, still looking over their shoulder at the bottom half.

Match Analysis

Torino’s last three outings have been mixed: a limp 0-2 defeat away at Udinese, bookended by a battling 2-2 draw at home to leaders Inter and a goalless stalemate at Cremonese. The performances have swung between resilient and toothless, but their broader recent run shows they’ve been more potent than the league table suggests, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five games. Their expected goals numbers (1.494 xG for, 1.336 xG against) back up the idea of a side that is generally creating slightly more than they allow, with two clean sheets in that stretch hinting at a defence that can tighten up when needed. Sassuolo arrive in better immediate form: a 2-0 home win over Milan, a 0-0 draw at Fiorentina and a 2-1 victory against Como. Seven points from nine show efficiency rather than dominance, and the advanced metrics underline that: they average just 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded in their last five, with only 0.91 xG for and a worrying 1.762 xG against. In other words, they’re giving up chances but have been kept afloat by timely finishing and some resilience at the back, also collecting two clean sheets in that same period.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is favoured at 55.0% probability, and the recent scorelines support a tighter affair. Two of Torino’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0-2 vs Udinese and 0-0 vs Cremonese), while Sassuolo have seen two of their last three also stay under (2-0 vs Milan, 0-0 vs Fiorentina). With Torino’s recent averages at 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Sassuolo’s at 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus modest xG figures on both sides, a controlled, cagey game fits the data better than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a relatively standard game, with 9.32 predicted corners overall. Torino have seen corner counts of 2, 5 and 1 in their last three, regularly allowing more (5, 5 and 6) as they often sit deeper and absorb pressure. Sassuolo’s recent matches have been slightly more open on set pieces (they earned 2, 4 and 5 corners while conceding 3, 7 and 8), which aligns with the expected corners figure just above nine for a match where both teams may probe without constant high-tempo attacking.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.41 expected shots in total, suggesting a decent amount of goal attempts but not an end‑to‑end thriller. Torino’s last three outings produced 9, 14 and 4 shots for, while they allowed 19, 14 and 14, indicating they can be outshot, especially away from home. Sassuolo have registered 13, 11 and 11 shots in their last three and conceded 7, 22 and 12, which tallies with the xG profile: they give up efforts but don’t always turn their own shots into high numbers of goals.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Torino wins by X goals. Negative = Sassuolo wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Torino vs Sassuolo with expected spread of -0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Torino vs Sassuolo
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is effectively a pick’em, with an expected spread of -0.02 (home minus away), despite Torino being the slight favourites on the 1X2 market. Torino’s recent goal differences across the last three games (-2, 0, 0) show a side not being blown away but also not consistently outscoring opponents. Sassuolo’s recent run (+2, 0, +1) is stronger, yet their inferior xG balance suggests they may be overperforming; that’s why the expected spread stays almost level even as the win probabilities lean narrowly towards the home side.

Final Prediction

Torino’s edge comes from home advantage and slightly better underlying numbers in both boxes, even if Sassuolo have the superior league position and more points from their recent fixtures. The key factor to watch will be whether Sassuolo’s defence can continue to survive the high xG they concede, or if Torino’s steady chance creation finally translates into the tight, low‑scoring home win the model anticipates.

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