Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Sassuolo Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Udinese

Home Team
58%
VS

Sassuolo

Away Team
21%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Udinese L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 2 - 2)

Sassuolo L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.12
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 1

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.42
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Udinese are favoured to take all three points, with a 58.0% probability of a home win against Sassuolo’s 21.0% chance, and a draw at 22.0%. The model leans towards a low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a fairly balanced goal outlook. In the table, Udinese sit 9th on 32 points, just ahead of 11th‑placed Sassuolo on 29, making this a direct mid‑table clash with real significance.

Match Analysis

Udinese come into this on a solid run: two wins from their last three, beating Roma 1-0 at home and Verona 3-1 away, with only a narrow 2-1 defeat at Lecce interrupting the momentum. Those results show they can grind out tight games (Roma) and also exploit weaker defences (Verona), while the shot counts – 20 attempts away at Verona and 8 against Roma – underline a team capable of adapting their approach. Sassuolo’s form has been more volatile. They were heavily beaten 5-0 at home by Inter, but responded with back-to-back wins over Pisa (3-1 away) and Cremonese (1-0 at home). Offensively they remain dangerous, creating 21 shots at Pisa and averaging 1.2 goals over their last five, but the thrashing by Inter exposes a defence that has conceded 34 league goals and 1.422 expected goals against per game in their last five. The advanced metrics slightly favour Udinese’s balance. They average 1.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in the last five, with xG for at 1.12 and xG against at 1.21 – not spectacular, but solid. Sassuolo’s attack is marginally more productive on xG (1.346), yet they allow more chances, which, combined with Udinese’s home status, tilts the game towards the Friulani.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 48.0% probability against a relatively even goal expectation, shaping the main over 2.5 prediction angle towards a cagey game. Two of Udinese’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Lecce, 3-1 vs Verona), but their 1-0 win over Roma shows their comfort in low‑scoring battles, in line with their 1.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded averages. Sassuolo also had two of their last three over 2.5 (5-0 vs Inter, 3-1 vs Pisa) but their underlying figures – 1.2 scored, 1.4 conceded and both sides’ xG hovering around 1–1.4 – support a tight scoreline more often than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction suggests a moderate total, with 9.29 expected total corners in this match. Udinese’s recent corner numbers are mixed: 0 at Lecce, 4 against Roma and 8 at Verona, reflecting games where they have alternated between soaking pressure and attacking aggressively. Sassuolo have been more stable, earning 5, 5 and 3 corners in their last three, with opponents also generating a decent tally, which fits two teams that do attack but not relentlessly; hence the prediction leans toward around nine or ten corners overall.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.08 total attempts, a realistic shots prediction given both sides’ recent trends. Udinese have taken 6, 8 and 20 shots in their last three, while facing 16, 10 and 7, showing that game state and opponent strength heavily influence their shot volume. Sassuolo’s last three produced 7, 21 and 13 efforts from them, with 23, 15 and 10 faced, in line with their xG profiles and supporting a moderately open game rather than an end‑to‑end barrage.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s edge comes from a slightly better defensive record, home advantage, and more controlled recent performances, all reflected in the 58.0% win probability. Sassuolo’s attack can still trouble them, but their defensive openness away from home is a concern. A key factor to watch will be whether Udinese can impose their compact shape early; if they do, their efficiency in tight matches should be enough to secure a narrow home victory.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel