Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Como Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Verona

Home Team
20%
VS

Como

Away Team
61%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 41%
Under 2.5: 59%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.0
Expected Spread: -1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Verona D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)

Como D W L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

xG (avg) 0.51
xGA (avg) 0.82
Clean Sheets 1

Como

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 0.92
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Como are clear favourites here: they are given a 61.0% chance of victory away to relegation‑threatened Verona, who have just a 20.0% probability of winning, with the draw at 19.0%. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 prediction backed by a 59.0% probability. In the table, Como are flying high in 6th on 62 points, while Verona sit 19th on 20 points and staring down relegation.

Match Analysis

Verona come into this with spirit but little reward. They’ve drawn their last two – 1-1 away at Juventus and 0-0 at home to Lecce – before a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Milan in a match they actually edged on shots (13-6) and corners (6-1). The trend is clear: they are hard to completely roll over, but they struggle badly in the final third. Across their last five, Verona average just 0.2 goals scored and 0.506 expected goals per game; defensively they’ve been tighter than their league position suggests, conceding 1.2 goals and only 0.818 xG on average, with one clean sheet. Como, by contrast, look like a well‑balanced top‑half side. They’ve taken four points from trips to Genoa (2-0 win) and Sassuolo (1-2 loss), plus a solid 0-0 draw at home to title‑chasing Napoli in which they actually outshot Napoli 16-8. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, with three clean sheets, and their xG figures (0.952 for, 0.924 against) point to a team that creates slightly more than it allows while keeping matches relatively controlled. That blend of efficiency and defensive stability underpins their strong position in 6th.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction is clearly on the “under 2.5” side, with a 41.0% chance of over meaning 59.0% implied probability of a game with two goals or fewer. All three of Verona’s most recent matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-1, 0-0, 0-1), and they’re averaging just 0.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over the last five, in line with their low xG numbers. Como have had one match over 2.5 (their 1-2 loss at Sassuolo) and two under (2-0, 0-0), and their modest attacking xG of 0.952 per game also supports an under 2.5 call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Verona
Corners in last 5 matches
Como
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 8.99, suggesting a moderate corners prediction rather than a frantic end‑to‑end contest. Verona’s last three outings produced corner counts of 1, 2 and 6 for them, while they conceded 14, 4 and 1 – a very mixed profile that reflects spells of deep defending and occasional home pressure. Como’s last three saw them record 3, 3 and 8 corners, conceding 2, 2 and 5, numbers that fit a side that builds attacks methodically rather than relentlessly bombarding the box, which matches an expectation of around nine predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.0, pointing to a game with chances but not a shooting gallery. Verona’s last three produced 7, 6 and 13 shots for, while they faced 29, 12 and 6, underlining how often they are pushed back, particularly by stronger sides. Como, meanwhile, have attempted 16, 8 and 12 shots and faced 8, 9 and 11; their balanced shot numbers dovetail neatly with their xG profile and the 24.0 expected shots prediction for this match.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Verona wins by X goals. Negative = Como wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Verona vs Como with expected spread of -1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Verona vs Como
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of -1.21 (home minus away), meaning Como are projected to win by just over a goal on average. Over their last three, Verona’s goal difference is -1 (1 scored, 2 conceded), while Como’s is +1 (3 scored, 2 conceded), but the wider form – Como averaging 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded over five games – justifies this edge. That spread lines up with the 61.0% away win probability and the perception of Como as far stronger both offensively and defensively than a Verona side stuck in 19th.

Final Prediction

Como have the edge because they marry a solid defence and consistent attack with far superior league form, while Verona’s biggest issue remains turning hard work into goals. The key factor to watch will be whether Verona can break their scoring funk against a Como side that has kept three clean sheets in five; if they can’t, the visitors’ extra quality should tell over 90 minutes.

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