NBA 2025-2026: Milwaukee Bucks vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Milwaukee Bucks
Home Team
45.7%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
54.3%
Key Prediction Insights
The pick: New Orleans Pelicans to win (54.3% probability). Expected starting five — Milwaukee Bucks: Ryan Rollins, A.J. Green, Bobby Portis, Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner; New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Derik Queen.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a fairly high-scoring affair with a combined total of 222.08 points, suggesting a lively pace and plenty of offensive possessions. The expected spread (Home − Away) is −2.17, giving the home side, New Orleans, a narrow 2.17-point edge on the board.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.1
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Milwaukee Bucks - New Orleans Pelicans)
-2.2
Most likely outcome: -3 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Both teams come in 1–2 over their last three games. Milwaukee beat Chicago 131–115 but followed with losses to Boston (79–107) and Washington (99–109), showing volatility on offense. New Orleans lost to Charlotte 95–102 and Philadelphia 114–124 before beating Memphis 114–106, a pattern that mixes defensive lapses with the ability to score efficiently against quality opponents.
Looking at the projected starters, Milwaukee’s five average an offensive rating of 113.76, a defensive rating of 117.68, and 13.22 average points made per starter. New Orleans’ starters average an offensive rating of 114.86, a defensive rating of 118.56, and 16.20 average points made per starter. The Pelicans’ starting five brings more scoring from their core (notably Trey Murphy III at 21.65 and Zion Williamson at 21.44 average points made), while the Bucks show comparable efficiency but less scoring volume from their role players.
Final Prediction
New Orleans gets the edge because its starters are producing more points and it has the small home spread in its favor. Key factor to watch: whether Milwaukee can slow down Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson, who drive much of the Pelicans’ scoring load.
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