NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
34.6%
VS
Denver Nuggets
Away Team
65.4%
Key Prediction Insights
The pick: Denver Nuggets to win (65.4% probability). Expected starting five — Chicago Bulls: Anfernee Simons (O: 122.0, D: 135.0, PTS: 22.0), Isaac Okoro (O: 114.7, D: 121.1, PTS: 8.75), Jaden Ivey (O: 120.0, D: 127.0, PTS: 13.0), Matas Buzelis (O: 110.8, D: 117.0, PTS: 15.0), Jalen Smith (O: 120.0, D: 116.0, PTS: 10.16279069767442). Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray (O: 125.5, D: 120.6, PTS: 25.91489361702128), Christian Braun (O: 110.7, D: 118.3, PTS: 9.0625), Jalen Pickett (O: 105.4, D: 119.1, PTS: 5.722222222222222), Cameron Johnson (O: 119.5, D: 120.4, PTS: 11.678571428571429), Nikola Jokić (O: 141.6, D: 113.9, PTS: 29.13888888888889).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 233.6 total points, signaling a fast-paced, high-scoring game if both teams hit form. The expected spread is -8.03 (home minus away), meaning Denver is projected to have about an 8-point edge at home.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.6
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Denver Nuggets)
-8.0
Most likely outcome: -9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Both teams enter on three-game losing streaks. Chicago has been struggling on both ends, scoring 107, 115 and 91 while allowing 123, 131 and 134, a recent scoring average of 104.33 and allowing 129.33 points per game. Denver’s results are closer — scoring 127, 121 and 111 while allowing 134, 124 and 121, averaging 119.67 points scored and 126.33 allowed over the last three.
Looking at the projected starters, Chicago’s five average an offensive rating of 117.50, defensive rating of 123.22 and average 13.78 points made per starter. Denver’s projected five carry a higher offensive rating of 120.54, a better defensive rating of 118.46 and average 16.30 points made per starter. Nikola Jokić’s elite O:141.6 and 29.14 PTS lead Denver’s advantage, while Chicago’s defensive ratings (notably Simons’ D:135.0) suggest matchup vulnerabilities.
Final Prediction
Denver’s combination of higher offensive efficiency and more scoring from its projected starters gives them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how well Chicago contains Nikola Jokić and whether their offense can keep pace with Denver’s expected scoring.
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