NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
72.4%
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Away Team
27.6%
Key Prediction Insights
Phoenix Suns are projected to win (72.4% probability). Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Royce O'Neale, Mark Williams. Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined total of 228.81 points, indicating a reasonably high-scoring game and a fairly up-tempo affair. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 7.31, which translates to roughly a 7.3-point advantage in favor of the predicted winner, the Phoenix Suns.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
228.8
Most likely outcome: 228 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Dallas Mavericks)
7.3
Most likely outcome: 7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Recent form shows Phoenix at 1-2 over their last three: a 103-109 loss to Philadelphia, a 97-101 loss to Golden State, and a 130-125 win over Portland. That win shows the Suns can put up points in a shootout, but the two losses highlight some defensive lapses. Dallas is on a three-game skid, dropping 125-138 and 123-135 to San Antonio and 100-110 to Boston, which suggests they’ve struggled to contain opponents and close out games.
Looking at the expected starting fives, Phoenix’s group averages an offensive rating of 120.42, a defensive rating of 114.00, and average points made of 16.51 per starter. Dallas’s starting five averages an offensive rating of 112.38, a defensive rating of 113.38, and average points made of 14.12 per starter. Those numbers show Phoenix with a clear offensive edge and slightly higher scoring from their rotation, while the defensive ratings are comparable.
Final Prediction
Phoenix’s higher offensive profile and more consistent scoring from the projected starters give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Phoenix’s offense sustains efficiency (led by Booker and supporting scorers) against Dallas’s defense and how the interior matchup with Mark Williams and Daniel Gafford plays out.
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