Dallas Mavericks
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Dallas Mavericks?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 75 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Dallas Mavericks were 2.7% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 72.0% | 67.4% | 75.7% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 61.8% | 67.3% | 65.7% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Dallas Mavericks won 6 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 3 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #24 | 1486 | 1486 | 1360 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #20 | 1510 | 1578 | 1442 |
| 2023-24 | 104 | #2 | 1511 | 1678 | 1662 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #24 | 1491 | 1551 | 1425 |
| 2021-22 | 100 | #5 | 1488 | 1654 | 1622 |
| 2020-21 | 79 | #10 | 1491 | 1592 | 1558 |
| 2019-20 | 81 | #13 | 1510 | 1589 | 1522 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #24 | 1489 | 1544 | 1416 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #27 | 1489 | 1489 | 1350 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #21 | 1490 | 1508 | 1438 |
| 2015-16 | 87 | #17 | 1512 | 1546 | 1496 |
| 2014-15 | 87 | #10 | 1491 | 1617 | 1548 |
| 2013-14 | 89 | #9 | 1510 | 1603 | 1590 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #11 | 1511 | 1546 | 1544 |
| 2011-12 | 70 | #16 | 1488 | 1583 | 1495 |
| 2010-11 | 103 | #1 | 1510 | 1727 | 1727 |
| 2009-10 | 88 | #6 | 1488 | 1629 | 1601 |
| 2008-09 | 92 | #8 | 1489 | 1622 | 1595 |
| 2007-08 | 87 | #12 | 1512 | 1613 | 1550 |
| 2006-07 | 88 | #2 | 1489 | 1750 | 1671 |
| 2005-06 | 105 | #3 | 1511 | 1709 | 1663 |
| 2004-05 | 95 | #5 | 1510 | 1677 | 1658 |
| 2003-04 | 87 | #7 | 1489 | 1631 | 1581 |
| 2002-03 | 102 | #4 | 1512 | 1668 | 1645 |
| 2001-02 | 90 | #4 | 1510 | 1668 | 1638 |
| 2000-01 | 92 | #3 | 1509 | 1639 | 1616 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #12 | 1510 | 1554 | 1554 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #20 | 1490 | 1500 | 1452 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #23 | 1511 | 1530 | 1332 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #25 | 1511 | 1511 | 1324 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nembhard | PG | 27 | 10.6 |
| P.J. Washington | PF | 46 | 9.1 |
| Khris Middleton | SF | 44 | 6.5 |
| Daniel Gafford | C | 42 | 6.4 |
| Max Christie | SG | 64 | 5.6 |
| Cooper Flagg | SF | 63 | 4.7 |
| Naji Marshall | SF | 47 | 3.3 |
Every Dallas Mavericks player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Chicago Bulls | L Dallas Mavericks 43.4% | W 149-128 ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Dallas Mavericks 9.1% | L 120-139 ✓ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | at Phoenix Suns | L Dallas Mavericks 27.2% | L 107-112 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Los Angeles Clippers | L Dallas Mavericks 23.9% | L 103-116 ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | W Dallas Mavericks 50.8% | W 134-128 ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Orlando Magic | L Dallas Mavericks 38.2% | L 127-138 ✓ |
| Mar 31, 2026 | at Milwaukee Bucks | W Dallas Mavericks 66.8% | L 99-123 ✗ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | L Dallas Mavericks 30.1% | L 94-124 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at Portland Trail Blazers | L Dallas Mavericks 22.1% | W 100-93 ✗ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | at Denver Nuggets | L Dallas Mavericks 10.4% | L 135-142 ✓ |
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