NBA 2025-2026: Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Golden State Warriors
Home Team
41.7%
VS
San Antonio Spurs
Away Team
58.3%
Key Prediction Insights
San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win (58.3% probability). Expected starting fives: Golden State — De'Anthony Melton, Pat Spencer, Moses Moody, Draymond Green, Gui Santos. San Antonio — De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 226.57 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with a decent pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -4.77, meaning the away team is favored by about 4.8 points.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
226.6
Most likely outcome: 226 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - San Antonio Spurs)
-4.8
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Golden State comes in 2-1 over the last three, edging Memphis 114-113, dropping a close 99-105 game to the Lakers, and beating Phoenix 101-97. Those results show the Warriors hanging in low-to-moderate scoring affairs with tight margins on both ends. San Antonio is rolling with three straight wins — 136-108 vs. the Lakers and back-to-back wins over Dallas (138-125, 135-123) — a run defined by explosive offense and large margins.
Looking at the projected starting fives, San Antonio holds a clear offensive advantage: their five-man average offensive rating is 114.52 and average points made per starter is 16.00. Golden State’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 103.52 and just 8.65 points made per starter. Defensively the Spurs also have the edge on these numbers: San Antonio’s average defensive rating is 110.38 versus Golden State’s 112.72. Those differences help explain the Spurs being favored despite the spread.
Final Prediction
The Spurs’ hotter form and superior offensive numbers give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: Victor Wembanyama’s two-way impact — his 117.8 offensive rating, 100.9 defensive rating, and 24.36 points per game are pivotal to San Antonio’s projected success.
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