Los Angeles Lakers
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Los Angeles Lakers?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 85 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Los Angeles Lakers were 0.9% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 85 | 62.4% | 67.4% | 86.8% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 81 | 65.4% | 67.3% | 66.7% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Los Angeles Lakers won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 2 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 92 | #8 | 1489 | 1637 | 1595 |
| 2024-25 | 87 | #12 | 1510 | 1620 | 1558 |
| 2023-24 | 87 | #10 | 1490 | 1584 | 1563 |
| 2022-23 | 98 | #7 | 1490 | 1602 | 1565 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #23 | 1489 | 1516 | 1406 |
| 2020-21 | 78 | #13 | 1489 | 1619 | 1535 |
| 2019-20 | 92 | #1 | 1490 | 1702 | 1697 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #20 | 1490 | 1559 | 1451 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #20 | 1488 | 1518 | 1466 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #26 | 1510 | 1522 | 1377 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #29 | 1489 | 1489 | 1300 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #27 | 1488 | 1488 | 1312 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #24 | 1510 | 1510 | 1378 |
| 2012-13 | 86 | #12 | 1489 | 1580 | 1542 |
| 2011-12 | 78 | #9 | 1489 | 1602 | 1566 |
| 2010-11 | 92 | #5 | 1509 | 1692 | 1606 |
| 2009-10 | 105 | #2 | 1510 | 1682 | 1678 |
| 2008-09 | 105 | #1 | 1511 | 1743 | 1743 |
| 2007-08 | 103 | #2 | 1489 | 1728 | 1700 |
| 2006-07 | 87 | #18 | 1510 | 1589 | 1465 |
| 2005-06 | 89 | #9 | 1510 | 1593 | 1560 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #24 | 1510 | 1536 | 1388 |
| 2003-04 | 104 | #3 | 1511 | 1704 | 1666 |
| 2002-03 | 94 | #3 | 1489 | 1668 | 1648 |
| 2001-02 | 101 | #1 | 1510 | 1744 | 1744 |
| 2000-01 | 98 | #1 | 1511 | 1760 | 1760 |
| 1999-00 | 105 | #1 | 1511 | 1766 | 1729 |
| 1998-99 | 58 | #7 | 1510 | 1587 | 1556 |
| 1997-98 | 95 | #3 | 1511 | 1717 | 1677 |
| 1996-97 | 91 | #8 | 1510 | 1642 | 1614 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deandre Ayton | C | 76 | 7.4 |
| Austin Reaves | SG | 43 | 7.0 |
| LeBron James | SF | 70 | 6.5 |
| Jake LaRavia | PF | 41 | 6.0 |
| Luka Dončić | PG | 60 | 5.1 |
| Marcus Smart | PG | 61 | 4.9 |
| Rui Hachimura | PF | 44 | 3.8 |
Every Los Angeles Lakers player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L Los Angeles Lakers 44.1% | L 110-115 ✓ |
| May 09, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L Los Angeles Lakers 42.3% | L 108-131 ✓ |
| May 07, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L Los Angeles Lakers 11.1% | L 107-125 ✓ |
| May 05, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L Los Angeles Lakers 8.3% | L 90-108 ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | at Houston Rockets | L Los Angeles Lakers 22.8% | W 98-78 ✗ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | W Los Angeles Lakers 85.3% | L 93-99 ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Houston Rockets | L Los Angeles Lakers 18.0% | L 96-115 ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Houston Rockets | L Los Angeles Lakers 24.9% | W 112-108 ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | L Los Angeles Lakers 45.8% | W 101-94 ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | L Los Angeles Lakers 44.3% | W 107-98 ✗ |
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