San Antonio Spurs
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the San Antonio Spurs?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 99 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the San Antonio Spurs were 7.2% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 99 | 67.7% | 67.4% | 70.5% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 61.8% | 67.3% | 75.9% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the San Antonio Spurs won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 10 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 105 | #3 | 1514 | 1745 | 1713 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #23 | 1490 | 1521 | 1429 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #23 | 1489 | 1508 | 1392 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #29 | 1487 | 1528 | 1328 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #21 | 1512 | 1512 | 1472 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #20 | 1512 | 1537 | 1459 |
| 2019-20 | 71 | #16 | 1510 | 1528 | 1505 |
| 2018-19 | 89 | #10 | 1509 | 1594 | 1568 |
| 2017-18 | 87 | #14 | 1510 | 1589 | 1523 |
| 2016-17 | 98 | #3 | 1513 | 1688 | 1630 |
| 2015-16 | 92 | #3 | 1490 | 1746 | 1704 |
| 2014-15 | 89 | #3 | 1509 | 1685 | 1659 |
| 2013-14 | 105 | #1 | 1510 | 1734 | 1734 |
| 2012-13 | 103 | #2 | 1511 | 1710 | 1691 |
| 2011-12 | 80 | #1 | 1510 | 1755 | 1706 |
| 2010-11 | 88 | #7 | 1510 | 1692 | 1589 |
| 2009-10 | 92 | #7 | 1511 | 1629 | 1592 |
| 2008-09 | 87 | #9 | 1489 | 1634 | 1572 |
| 2007-08 | 99 | #3 | 1510 | 1673 | 1651 |
| 2006-07 | 102 | #1 | 1511 | 1732 | 1732 |
| 2005-06 | 95 | #1 | 1510 | 1700 | 1675 |
| 2004-05 | 105 | #1 | 1510 | 1712 | 1694 |
| 2003-04 | 92 | #2 | 1509 | 1734 | 1685 |
| 2002-03 | 106 | #1 | 1511 | 1734 | 1732 |
| 2001-02 | 92 | #3 | 1510 | 1682 | 1644 |
| 2000-01 | 95 | #2 | 1510 | 1706 | 1660 |
| 1999-00 | 86 | #8 | 1510 | 1612 | 1593 |
| 1998-99 | 67 | #1 | 1511 | 1741 | 1741 |
| 1997-98 | 91 | #5 | 1512 | 1662 | 1641 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #26 | 1491 | 1491 | 1320 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | PG | 93 | 5.9 |
| Victor Wembanyama | C | 71 | 5.3 |
| Harrison Barnes | PF | 46 | 3.3 |
| Julian Champagnie | SF | 85 | 3.3 |
| Devin Vassell | SG | 82 | 1.5 |
| Luke Kornet | C | 26 | 0.4 |
| Stephon Castle | PG | 84 | -0.7 |
Every San Antonio Spurs player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W San Antonio Spurs 64.4% | L 90-94 ✗ |
| Jun 10, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L San Antonio Spurs 43.5% | L 106-107 ✓ |
| Jun 08, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L San Antonio Spurs 47.2% | W 115-111 ✗ |
| Jun 05, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W San Antonio Spurs 64.0% | L 104-105 ✗ |
| Jun 03, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W San Antonio Spurs 55.5% | L 95-105 ✗ |
| May 30, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L San Antonio Spurs 35.5% | W 111-103 ✗ |
| May 28, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W San Antonio Spurs 63.4% | W 118-91 ✓ |
| May 26, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L San Antonio Spurs 22.6% | L 114-127 ✓ |
| May 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W San Antonio Spurs 63.2% | W 103-82 ✓ |
| May 22, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W San Antonio Spurs 64.6% | L 108-123 ✗ |
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