NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
37.1%
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away Team
62.9%
Key Prediction Insights
Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win this one, with a 62.9% probability. Expected starting fives: Chicago — Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele; Oklahoma City — Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 222.86 points, which points to a moderately fast game with both teams able to generate offense. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -6.39, implying the away side is favored by about 6.4 points — a clear edge toward the Thunder.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
222.9
Most likely outcome: 222 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Oklahoma City Thunder)
-6.4
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Game Analysis
Chicago are 1-2 over their last three: a strong 120-97 win over Milwaukee sandwiched between a 112-121 loss to Portland and a rough 99-131 loss to Charlotte. Those results hint at inconsistency — they can score (120 vs MIL) but have also surrendered a lot (131 vs CHA). Oklahoma City are 2-1 in their last three, beating Dallas 100-87 and Denver 127-121 before a 116-124 loss at Detroit, showing the ability to defend and also put up points against quality opponents.
Looking at the expected starters, Chicago’s five average an offensive rating of 115.78 and a defensive rating of 117.74, with an average points-made per starter of about 12.95. Oklahoma City’s projected five average an offensive rating of 114.82 and a much stronger defensive rating of 107.62, with average points-made per starter around 10.47. Chet Holmgren (OFF 124.2, DEF 103.9, 17.185185185185187 PTS) and Tre Jones’ offensive punch (OFF 129.6) are notable, but the Thunder’s collective defensive edge is the cleaner story.
Final Prediction
The Thunder’s sizable defensive advantage and steadier recent form give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Chicago can crack OKC’s defense enough to negate Chet Holmgren’s two-way impact.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel