NBA 2025-2026: Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Detroit Pistons

Home Team
86.2%
VS

Memphis Grizzlies

Away Team
13.8%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cade Cunningham
OR
118.6
DR
110.5
PTS
24.8
VS
Cedric Coward
OR
115.1
DR
116.4
PTS
13.4
SG
Marcus Sasser
OR
90.5
DR
105.0
PTS
5.2
VS
Jaylen Wells
OR
111.5
DR
119.2
PTS
12.8
SF
Duncan Robinson
OR
125.2
DR
115.1
PTS
12.0
VS
Ty Jerome
OR
128.9
DR
124.6
PTS
20.0
PF
Tobias Harris
OR
116.3
DR
111.7
PTS
13.1
VS
GG Jackson II
OR
101.2
DR
99.4
PTS
11.2
C
Jalen Duren
OR
130.8
DR
107.8
PTS
18.5
VS
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
108.6
DR
117.4
PTS
8.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Detroit Pistons are projected to win with an 86.2% probability. Expected starting five — Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Marcus Sasser, Duncan Robinson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren. Memphis Grizzlies: Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.66 points, indicating a game that should play out at a relatively high scoring pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 13.81, meaning the home team is projected to be about 13.81 points better than the visitor on paper.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.7 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Detroit Pistons - Memphis Grizzlies) 13.8 Most likely outcome: 14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ power ratings are falling over their last five games, with Memphis sliding more sharply than Detroit.

Detroit Pistons

1636.6 -15.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-12 Philadelphia 76ers 1636.6 +6.6
2026-03-10 Brooklyn Nets 1630.0 +4.4
2026-03-08 Miami Heat 1625.6 -12.8
2026-03-07 Brooklyn Nets 1638.4 -14.1
2026-03-05 San Antonio Spurs 1652.5 —

Memphis Grizzlies

1361.8 -35.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-12 Dallas Mavericks 1361.8 -11.3
2026-03-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1373.1 -6.2
2026-03-09 Brooklyn Nets 1379.3 -11.5
2026-03-07 Los Angeles Clippers 1390.8 -6.7
2026-03-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1397.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Detroit Pistons

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 131 109 +22
Brooklyn Nets 138 100 +38
Miami Heat 110 121 -11
Brooklyn Nets 105 107 -2
San Antonio Spurs 106 121 -15

Memphis Grizzlies

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 112 120 -8
Philadelphia 76ers 129 139 -10
Brooklyn Nets 115 126 -11
Los Angeles Clippers 120 123 -3
Portland Trail Blazers 114 122 -8

Game Analysis

Detroit arrives 2-1 over its last three games with dominant wins (131-109 and 138-100) and a single 110-121 loss; that recent offense has looked potent. Memphis is on a three-game skid (losses 112-120, 129-139, 115-126), struggling to stop opponents and failing to close out games. Momentum clearly favors Detroit at the moment. Looking at the expected starting fives, Detroit’s group averages an offensive rating of 116.28, a defensive rating of 110.02, and 14.72 points made per starter; Memphis’s starters average an offensive rating of 113.06, a defensive rating of 115.40, and 13.12 points made per starter. Detroit’s starters show the edge on both offense and defense on paper, and their top scorers (Cade Cunningham averaging 24.8) plus Jalen Duren’s efficiency (ORtg 130.8) should drive that advantage.

Final Prediction

Detroit’s stronger recent form, higher starter offensive efficiency, and milder drop in power rating give them the edge. Watch how Detroit’s primary scorers (Cunningham and Duren) fare against Memphis’s weakened defense — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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