NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs New Orleans Pelicans: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Houston Rockets
Home Team
75.6%
VS
New Orleans Pelicans
Away Team
24.4%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Amen Thompson
OR
122.3
DR
113.9
PTS
17.7
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
113.1
DR
112.3
PTS
17.6
SG
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
123.6
DR
114.4
PTS
15.4
VS
Herbert Jones
OR
103.0
DR
117.2
PTS
9.0
SF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.5
DR
114.8
PTS
25.9
VS
Saddiq Bey
OR
121.4
DR
121.0
PTS
17.3
PF
Tari Eason
OR
113.0
DR
112.0
PTS
10.8
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
122.9
DR
119.5
PTS
22.1
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
113.3
DR
111.7
PTS
20.2
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
124.3
DR
118.5
PTS
21.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Houston Rockets are favored to win (75.6% probability).
Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Tari Eason, Alperen Şengün. New Orleans Pelicans: Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 236.97 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring game with plenty of offense. The expected spread is 9.62 (home - away), giving a sizable advantage to the home side — a near 10-point cushion for Houston.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
237.0
Most likely outcome: 237 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - New Orleans Pelicans)
9.6
Most likely outcome: 9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Houston’s recent power-rating trend is slightly down (-4.8 over five games) while New Orleans is trending up (+23.6 over five games).
Houston Rockets
1560.5
-4.8 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Denver Nuggets | 1560.5 | -14.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Toronto Raptors | 1574.5 | +9.3 |
| 2026-03-08 | San Antonio Spurs | 1565.2 | -7.5 |
| 2026-03-06 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1572.7 | +7.4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Golden State Warriors | 1565.3 | — |
New Orleans Pelicans
1431.7
+23.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Toronto Raptors | 1431.7 | +12.6 |
| 2026-03-08 | Washington Wizards | 1419.1 | +8.6 |
| 2026-03-06 | Phoenix Suns | 1410.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Sacramento Kings | 1416.5 | +8.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1408.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Houston Rockets
2-3 in last 5
L
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 93 | 129 | -36 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 113 | 99 | +14 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 120 | 145 | -25 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 106 | 99 | +7 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 113 | 115 | -2 |
New Orleans Pelicans
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 122 | 111 | +11 | |
| Washington Wizards | 138 | 118 | +20 | |
| Phoenix Suns | 116 | 118 | -2 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 133 | 123 | +10 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 101 | 110 | -9 |
Game Analysis
Houston has gone 1-2 in its last three, beating Toronto 113-99 but suffering lopsided defensive losses to Denver (93-129) and San Antonio (120-145). The Rockets have shown scoring punch but inconsistent defense, which will be tested against New Orleans’ recent offensive burst. The Pelicans are 2-1 over their last three, posting 122-111 and 138-118 wins before a close 116-118 loss to Phoenix, suggesting momentum and strong scoring form.
Looking at the projected starters, Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 119.34 and a defensive rating of 113.36 with an average of 18.0 points made per starter. New Orleans’ projected five average an offensive rating of 116.94 and a defensive rating of 117.70 with 17.48 points made per starter. That gap — better offense and notably better defense for Houston’s starters — helps explain the sizable spread.
Final Prediction
Houston’s combination of higher offensive efficiency (119.34) and stronger defensive mark (113.36) gives them the edge against New Orleans’ rising squad. Key factor to watch: whether Houston can limit the Pelicans’ scoring two-step of Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III and stop another runaway defensive game.
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