NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Denver Nuggets
Home Team
77.8%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
22.2%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jamal Murray
OR
123.5
DR
120.0
PTS
25.4
VS
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.9
DR
117.6
PTS
13.5
SG
Christian Braun
OR
120.1
DR
117.8
PTS
10.9
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
111.6
DR
115.9
PTS
15.4
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
119.7
DR
115.0
PTS
17.0
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
124.3
DR
115.9
PTS
8.2
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
120.6
DR
119.0
PTS
11.5
VS
Justin Edwards
OR
98.5
DR
117.0
PTS
5.5
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
136.3
DR
112.6
PTS
28.6
VS
Adem Bona
OR
118.4
DR
114.1
PTS
4.6
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Denver Nuggets win (77.8% probability).
Expected starting five — Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 232.38 points, suggesting a relatively high-scoring game and a fairly brisk pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = 11.16 points, giving a large advantage to the home side and aligning with Denver as the clear favorite.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.4
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Philadelphia 76ers)
11.2
Most likely outcome: 11 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ power has been rising recently: Denver up +12.4 and Philadelphia up +13.7 over the last five games.
Denver Nuggets
1555.9
+12.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1555.9 | -9.4 |
| 2026-03-12 | San Antonio Spurs | 1565.3 | +13.8 |
| 2026-03-11 | Houston Rockets | 1551.5 | +14.0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1537.5 | -6.0 |
| 2026-03-06 | New York Knicks | 1543.5 | — |
Philadelphia 76ers
1510.8
+13.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1510.8 | +9.1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Brooklyn Nets | 1501.7 | +5.0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Detroit Pistons | 1496.7 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-10 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1503.3 | +6.2 |
| 2026-03-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1497.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Denver Nuggets
2-3 in last 5
L
W
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 125 | 127 | -2 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 136 | 131 | +5 | |
| Houston Rockets | 129 | 93 | +36 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 126 | 129 | -3 | |
| New York Knicks | 103 | 142 | -39 |
Philadelphia 76ers
3-2 in last 5
W
W
L
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 109 | 103 | +6 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 104 | 97 | +7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 109 | 131 | -22 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 139 | 129 | +10 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 101 | 115 | -14 |
Game Analysis
Denver is 2-1 over the last three games with back-to-back wins against San Antonio (136-131) and Houston (129-93) after a narrow 125-127 loss to the Lakers. Those results show Denver can both blow out weaker opponents and hang in tight, high-scoring affairs. Philadelphia is also 2-1, beating Portland (109-103) and Brooklyn (104-97) but suffering a heavy 109-131 loss to Detroit, which raises questions about consistency on defense.
Looking at the projected starting units, Denver’s five average an offensive rating of 124.04 and a defensive rating of 116.88 with an average 18.68 points made per starter — led clearly by Nikola Jokić’s 136.3 offensive rating and 28.6 points. Philadelphia’s starters average a 113.54 offensive rating and a 116.10 defensive rating with just 9.44 points made per starter. The offensive gap (about +10.5 in rating and nearly +9.3 points per starter) is the core reason Denver looks dominant.
Final Prediction
Denver’s edge comes from a markedly stronger starting-unit offense and Jokić’s outsized impact. The key factor to watch is whether Philadelphia can find reliable scoring from its starters and contain Jokić enough to shrink the projected 11-point margin.
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