NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
25.3%
VS

Denver Nuggets

Away Team
74.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cedric Coward
OR
114.9
DR
117.2
PTS
13.3
VS
Jamal Murray
OR
123.4
DR
119.6
PTS
25.2
SG
Jaylen Wells
OR
111.7
DR
119.4
PTS
12.8
VS
Christian Braun
OR
122.3
DR
117.0
PTS
11.2
SF
Ty Jerome
OR
126.7
DR
125.2
PTS
20.1
VS
Spencer Jones
OR
115.1
DR
117.5
PTS
5.8
PF
GG Jackson II
OR
101.2
DR
99.4
PTS
11.2
VS
Cameron Johnson
OR
122.0
DR
118.5
PTS
11.6
C
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.0
DR
118.1
PTS
8.5
VS
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.8
DR
112.3
PTS
28.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets — 74.7% chance to win. Expected starters: Memphis Grizzlies: Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 240.74 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring outing and an uptempo game environment. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -6.81, which implies a 6.81-point edge to the away team — a meaningful cushion for the visitor.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 240.7 Most likely outcome: 241 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Denver Nuggets) -6.8 Most likely outcome: -7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis’ ratings are falling while Denver’s are rising over the last five games.

Memphis Grizzlies

1348.8 -30.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-16 Chicago Bulls 1348.8 -9.9
2026-03-13 Detroit Pistons 1358.7 -3.1
2026-03-12 Dallas Mavericks 1361.8 -11.3
2026-03-10 Philadelphia 76ers 1373.1 -6.2
2026-03-09 Brooklyn Nets 1379.3 —

Denver Nuggets

1565.5 +28.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-17 Philadelphia 76ers 1565.5 +9.6
2026-03-14 Los Angeles Lakers 1555.9 -9.4
2026-03-12 San Antonio Spurs 1565.3 +13.8
2026-03-11 Houston Rockets 1551.5 +14.0
2026-03-09 Oklahoma City Thunder 1537.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 107 132 -25
Detroit Pistons 110 126 -16
Dallas Mavericks 112 120 -8
Philadelphia 76ers 129 139 -10
Brooklyn Nets 115 126 -11

Denver Nuggets

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 124 96 +28
Los Angeles Lakers 125 127 -2
San Antonio Spurs 136 131 +5
Houston Rockets 129 93 +36
Oklahoma City Thunder 126 129 -3

Game Analysis

Memphis is on a three-game losing streak, dropping 107-132 to Chicago, 110-126 to Detroit and 112-120 to Dallas; that slide is reflected in a -30.5 swing in their recent power number. Denver comes in with better recent form (wins over Philadelphia and San Antonio, a two-point loss to L.A.) and a +28.0 swing, indicating upward momentum and sharper execution. Looking at the projected starting units, Memphis’ five average an offensive rating of 112.7 and a defensive rating of 115.9, with 13.2 average points made per starter; Ty Jerome is the primary scorer at 20.1. Denver’s projected starters average a 123.7 offensive rating and a 117.0 defensive rating, with 16.4 points made per starter—Nikola Jokić (28.2 PPG, ORtg 135.8) and Jamal Murray (25.2 PPG) give Denver a clear offensive advantage.

Final Prediction

Denver’s stronger offensive profile and positive momentum give them the edge in this matchup. Watch how well Memphis can contain Jokić and whether Denver’s starters sustain that high offensive efficiency.

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