NBA 2025-2026: New Orleans Pelicans vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Team
40.9%
VS
Los Angeles Clippers
Away Team
59.1%
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Set it upStarting Five Matchup
PG
Herbert Jones
OR
103.3
DR
116.6
PTS
8.9
VS
Kris Dunn
OR
118.0
DR
116.7
PTS
7.7
SG
Saddiq Bey
OR
120.6
DR
120.6
PTS
17.3
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
123.8
DR
118.6
PTS
10.8
SF
Trey Murphy III
OR
122.4
DR
119.1
PTS
21.9
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.0
DR
112.6
PTS
28.2
PF
Zion Williamson
OR
125.2
DR
118.3
PTS
21.4
VS
John Collins
OR
122.6
DR
117.4
PTS
13.7
C
Yves Missi
OR
120.7
DR
117.2
PTS
5.5
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
97.5
DR
115.9
PTS
7.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Los Angeles Clippers are projected to win (59.1% probability).
Expected starting five — New Orleans Pelicans: Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Yves Missi. Los Angeles Clippers: Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected combined scoring is 231.9 points, pointing to an uptempo, high-scoring affair with both teams able to produce offense. The expected spread (Home - Away = -1.47) is very slim and slightly favors the visiting team by about 1.5 points, so this should be a tight matchup where home-court edge is minimal.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.9
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Los Angeles Clippers)
-1.5
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
New Orleans’ power rating is on the rise (+30.0 over five games), while Los Angeles’ rating has slipped (-30.5 over five games).
New Orleans Pelicans
1449.1
+30.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1449.1 | +13.9 |
| 2026-03-16 | Dallas Mavericks | 1435.2 | +8.8 |
| 2026-03-13 | Houston Rockets | 1426.4 | -5.3 |
| 2026-03-11 | Toronto Raptors | 1431.7 | +12.6 |
| 2026-03-08 | Washington Wizards | 1419.1 | — |
Los Angeles Clippers
1532.7
-30.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1532.7 | -13.8 |
| 2026-03-16 | San Antonio Spurs | 1546.5 | -6.5 |
| 2026-03-14 | Sacramento Kings | 1553.0 | -15.4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Chicago Bulls | 1568.4 | +5.2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1563.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
New Orleans Pelicans
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Clippers | 124 | 109 | +15 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 129 | 111 | +18 | |
| Houston Rockets | 105 | 107 | -2 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 122 | 111 | +11 | |
| Washington Wizards | 138 | 118 | +20 |
Los Angeles Clippers
2-3 in last 5
L
L
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 109 | 124 | -15 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 115 | 119 | -4 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 109 | 118 | -9 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 119 | 108 | +11 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 153 | 128 | +25 |
Game Analysis
New Orleans arrives having won two of their last three, including a 124-109 victory over these Clippers and a 129-111 win over Dallas, with their only recent setback a 105-107 loss to Houston. The Pelicans’ momentum is clear and their two-way balance — led by Trey Murphy III (21.9 points) and Zion Williamson (21.4 points) — has been carrying them offensively.
The Clippers are on a three-game skid after that 109-124 loss to New Orleans, with additional defeats to San Antonio and Sacramento. Kawhi Leonard remains the offensive focal point at 28.2 points per game, and the Clippers’ starters profile as a stout defensive group overall.
Across the expected fives, New Orleans’ average offensive rating is 118.44, defensive rating 118.36, and average points made per starter 15.0. The Clippers’ starting five average offensive rating is 117.38, defensive rating 116.24, and average points made per starter 13.62. Those numbers suggest New Orleans brings a slightly higher collective scoring profile, while Los Angeles holds a defensive edge.
Final Prediction
The Clippers get the edge thanks to Kawhi’s scoring punch and a modestly better starting-five defensive profile, even though New Orleans comes in with upward momentum. Watch how Los Angeles defends Zion and Trey — if they contain the Pelicans’ primary scorers, the Clippers should pull away in a close, high-scoring game.
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