NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
35.3%
VS

San Antonio Spurs

Away Team
64.7%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Javon Small
OR
107.4
DR
121.2
PTS
9.2
VS
Stephon Castle
OR
116.2
DR
111.5
PTS
16.5
SG
Cedric Coward
OR
114.8
DR
117.0
PTS
13.4
VS
Devin Vassell
OR
116.6
DR
114.2
PTS
14.1
SF
Walter Clayton Jr.
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
VS
Dylan Harper
OR
113.5
DR
112.0
PTS
11.5
PF
GG Jackson II
OR
101.8
DR
101.4
PTS
11.8
VS
Julian Champagnie
OR
117.1
DR
111.9
PTS
11.1
C
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.5
DR
118.5
PTS
8.9
VS
Victor Wembanyama
OR
119.1
DR
99.7
PTS
24.3
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

San Antonio Spurs are the pick to win, with a 64.7% probability. Expected starting five — Memphis Grizzlies: Javon Small, Cedric Coward, Walter Clayton Jr., GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 225.19 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game and a decent offensive pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -13.57, meaning the away team holds a 13.57-point advantage (San Antonio is favored).

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.2 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - San Antonio Spurs) -13.6 Most likely outcome: -14 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis has been essentially flat with a small +1.1 move over five games, while San Antonio’s ELO is clearly rising (+15.5).

Memphis Grizzlies

1349.9 +1.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Atlanta Hawks 1349.9 -5.4
2026-03-21 Charlotte Hornets 1355.3 -4.3
2026-03-20 Boston Celtics 1359.6 -3.5
2026-03-18 Denver Nuggets 1363.1 +14.3
2026-03-16 Chicago Bulls 1348.8 —

San Antonio Spurs

1709.3 +15.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-23 Miami Heat 1709.3 +6.5
2026-03-21 Indiana Pacers 1702.8 +1.4
2026-03-19 Phoenix Suns 1701.4 +4.6
2026-03-17 Sacramento Kings 1696.8 +3.0
2026-03-16 Los Angeles Clippers 1693.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
L L L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 107 146 -39
Charlotte Hornets 101 124 -23
Boston Celtics 112 117 -5
Denver Nuggets 125 118 +7
Chicago Bulls 107 132 -25

San Antonio Spurs

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 136 111 +25
Indiana Pacers 134 119 +15
Phoenix Suns 101 100 +1
Sacramento Kings 132 104 +28
Los Angeles Clippers 119 115 +4

Game Analysis

Memphis arrives on a three-game losing streak (losses 107-146, 101-124, 112-117) with two blowouts and one competitive outing; their recent results point to defensive breakdowns in at least a couple of those games. San Antonio is on a three-game win streak (136-111, 134-119, 101-100) and has been scoring at a high clip, showing both explosive outings and a close-game edge. Looking at the expected starters: Memphis’s five average OFFENSIVE RATING is 86.7, DEFENSIVE RATING 91.6, and average POINTS MADE 8.7. San Antonio’s starters average OFFENSIVE RATING 116.5, DEFENSIVE RATING 109.9, and average POINTS MADE 15.5. Those numbers underline San Antonio’s superior offensive profile and scoring from the starting five, which should translate into sustained pressure across the game.

Final Prediction

San Antonio’s upward momentum, stronger starter production, and the 13.6-point projected edge make them the clear choice. Watch Victor Wembanyama’s influence and how Memphis attempts to contain San Antonio’s offensive flow — that matchup will likely decide the margin.

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