NBA 2025-2026: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Chicago Bulls: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
82.9%
VS

Chicago Bulls

Away Team
17.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
136.6
DR
108.1
PTS
31.5
VS
Josh Giddey
OR
112.4
DR
116.6
PTS
17.6
SG
Cason Wallace
OR
111.3
DR
106.6
PTS
8.5
VS
Tre Jones
OR
128.5
DR
117.9
PTS
13.0
SF
Jalen Williams
OR
114.8
DR
110.6
PTS
17.1
VS
Isaac Okoro
OR
113.8
DR
120.9
PTS
9.1
PF
Luguentz Dort
OR
102.7
DR
111.5
PTS
8.4
VS
Matas Buzelis
OR
109.2
DR
117.0
PTS
16.3
C
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
122.4
DR
103.4
PTS
9.6
VS
Nick Richards
OR
105.2
DR
115.8
PTS
9.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City Thunder are the pick to win (82.9% probability). Expected starting five — Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein. Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nick Richards.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.88 points, pointing to an uptempo, high-scoring game rather than a slog. The projected spread (Home − Away) is 15.24 points, a large margin that gives a clear advantage to the favored side; given the pick, Oklahoma City is considered the heavy favorite by roughly 15 points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.9 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Chicago Bulls) 15.2 Most likely outcome: 15 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City’s power rating has been mostly stable with a slight dip over five games, while Chicago’s rating has fallen more noticeably over the same span.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1691.4 -1.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Boston Celtics 1691.4 -12.2
2026-03-23 Philadelphia 76ers 1703.6 +6.2
2026-03-21 Washington Wizards 1697.4 +2.1
2026-03-18 Brooklyn Nets 1695.3 +2.7
2026-03-17 Orlando Magic 1692.6 —

Chicago Bulls

1402.4 -7.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Philadelphia 76ers 1402.4 -7.4
2026-03-23 Houston Rockets 1409.8 +13.8
2026-03-19 Cleveland Cavaliers 1396.0 -5.1
2026-03-18 Toronto Raptors 1401.1 -8.4
2026-03-16 Memphis Grizzlies 1409.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 109 119 -10
Philadelphia 76ers 123 103 +20
Washington Wizards 132 111 +21
Brooklyn Nets 121 92 +29
Orlando Magic 113 108 +5

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 137 157 -20
Houston Rockets 132 124 +8
Cleveland Cavaliers 110 115 -5
Toronto Raptors 109 139 -30
Memphis Grizzlies 132 107 +25

Game Analysis

Oklahoma City is 2-1 in their last three, with wins over Philadelphia (123-103) and Washington (132-111) before a 109-119 loss to Boston; they’ve shown they can pile on offense. Chicago is 1-2, beating Houston 132-124 but suffering losses to Philadelphia (137-157) and Cleveland (110-115), which raises questions about their defense against high-end scorers. The Thunder’s projected starting five average offensive rating is 117.56, defensive rating 108.04, and average points made 15.02 per starter. The Bulls’ starters average offensive rating 113.82, defensive rating 117.64, and average points made 13.08. That gap — notably Oklahoma City’s stronger team defense number and higher scoring from key pieces — helps explain the expected outcome.

Final Prediction

Oklahoma City’s superior mix of offensive firepower and cleaner defensive numbers gives them the edge. Watch how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring and Isaiah Hartenstein’s rim defense dictate the flow.

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