NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
77.9%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
22.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.4
DR
116.6
PTS
15.8
VS
Max Christie
OR
114.5
DR
119.3
PTS
12.6
SG
Deni Avdija
OR
116.2
DR
115.9
PTS
23.9
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.5
DR
115.3
PTS
20.4
SF
Jerami Grant
OR
116.4
DR
118.8
PTS
18.6
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
115.3
DR
117.5
PTS
15.4
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
112.3
DR
117.0
PTS
13.0
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
104.1
DR
114.3
PTS
14.3
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
130.4
DR
110.6
PTS
12.4
VS
Dwight Powell
OR
118.5
DR
116.3
PTS
3.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are projected to win (77.9% probability). Expected starting fives — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. Dallas: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Dwight Powell.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected combined total of 244.9 points, suggesting a fast pace and plenty of offense. The expected spread (home - away) is 11.69, a double-digit advantage for the home side that amplifies the projected gap in this matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 244.9 Most likely outcome: 245 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Dallas Mavericks) 11.7 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Portland’s Elo is on the rise (+18.7 over five games) while Dallas’s Elo has fallen (-24.9 over five games).

Portland Trail Blazers

1505.7 +18.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Milwaukee Bucks 1505.7 +8.8
2026-03-23 Brooklyn Nets 1496.9 +6.1
2026-03-22 Denver Nuggets 1490.8 -8.5
2026-03-20 Minnesota Timberwolves 1499.3 +12.3
2026-03-18 Indiana Pacers 1487.0 —

Dallas Mavericks

1354.3 -24.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Denver Nuggets 1354.3 -3.9
2026-03-23 Golden State Warriors 1358.2 -8.3
2026-03-21 Los Angeles Clippers 1366.5 -6.6
2026-03-18 Atlanta Hawks 1373.1 -6.1
2026-03-16 New Orleans Pelicans 1379.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

4-1 in last 5
W W L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 130 99 +31
Brooklyn Nets 134 99 +35
Denver Nuggets 112 128 -16
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 104 +4
Indiana Pacers 127 119 +8

Dallas Mavericks

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 135 142 -7
Golden State Warriors 131 137 -6
Los Angeles Clippers 131 138 -7
Atlanta Hawks 120 135 -15
New Orleans Pelicans 111 129 -18

Game Analysis

Portland comes in riding momentum: two strong wins (130-99 over Milwaukee, 134-99 over Brooklyn) and one loss (112-128 to Denver). Those victories show the Blazers can score in bunches and close out games when the offense clicks. Dallas arrives on a three-game skid, dropping high-scoring contests to Denver (135-142), Golden State (131-137) and L.A. Clippers (131-138), pointing to defensive lapses despite offensive output. Looking at the expected starting units, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of about 118.1, a defensive rating near 115.8, and roughly 16.7 points made per starter — a balanced group leaning offensive. Dallas’s starters average an offensive rating around 112.2, a defensive rating near 116.5, and about 13.2 points made per starter. Those numbers favor Portland on both ends, particularly in offensive firepower and scoring depth from starters.

Final Prediction

Portland’s recent form, higher offensive profile and rising Elo give them the clear edge in this matchup (77.9% to win). Watch how well Portland’s offense translates against Dallas’s struggling defense — that matchup will likely decide the final margin.

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