NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs Sacramento Kings: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Atlanta Hawks

Home Team
90.4%
VS

Sacramento Kings

Away Team
9.6%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
CJ McCollum
OR
112.4
DR
115.7
PTS
18.8
VS
Devin Carter
OR
97.0
DR
122.1
PTS
7.7
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.0
DR
112.5
PTS
11.7
VS
Nique Clifford
OR
92.3
DR
121.4
PTS
7.7
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
115.9
DR
116.6
PTS
20.4
VS
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.1
DR
123.7
PTS
18.4
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.5
DR
111.1
PTS
22.9
VS
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.2
DR
118.7
PTS
9.4
C
Jock Landale
OR
123.8
DR
112.8
PTS
8.7
VS
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.3
DR
120.9
PTS
11.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Atlanta Hawks (90.4% probability) are predicted to win. Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Jock Landale. Sacramento Kings: Devin Carter, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects 233.77 combined points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game with plenty of offense. The 16.0-point spread heavily favors the Hawks, implying a double-digit advantage and an expected comfortable margin for Atlanta.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.8 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Sacramento Kings) 16.0 Most likely outcome: 16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Atlanta’s power rating is rising (+17.6 over five games) while Sacramento’s is falling (-7.6 over five games).

Atlanta Hawks

1565.8 +17.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Boston Celtics 1565.8 -7.7
2026-03-25 Detroit Pistons 1573.5 +12.3
2026-03-23 Memphis Grizzlies 1561.2 +5.5
2026-03-21 Golden State Warriors 1555.7 +7.5
2026-03-20 Houston Rockets 1548.2 —

Sacramento Kings

1340.8 -7.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-26 Orlando Magic 1340.8 -4.7
2026-03-24 Charlotte Hornets 1345.5 -4.7
2026-03-22 Brooklyn Nets 1350.2 +8.8
2026-03-19 Philadelphia 76ers 1341.4 -7.0
2026-03-17 San Antonio Spurs 1348.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Atlanta Hawks

3-2 in last 5
L W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 102 109 -7
Detroit Pistons 130 129 +1
Memphis Grizzlies 146 107 +39
Golden State Warriors 126 110 +16
Houston Rockets 95 117 -22

Sacramento Kings

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 117 121 -4
Charlotte Hornets 90 134 -44
Brooklyn Nets 126 122 +4
Philadelphia 76ers 118 139 -21
San Antonio Spurs 104 132 -28

Game Analysis

Atlanta is 2-1 across their last three: wins 130-129 over Detroit and 146-107 over Memphis, followed by a 102-109 loss to Boston. Those results show the Hawks can erupt offensively (146 points) but also be tightened up by elite competition. Sacramento is 1-2: a 126-122 win over Brooklyn sandwiched around losses 117-121 to Orlando and a heavy 90-134 defeat to Charlotte, suggesting inconsistency and defensive lapses. Looking at the expected starters, Atlanta’s five average an offensive rating of 117.12, defensive rating of 113.74, and 16.50 average points made — a balanced group with strong scoring upside (Jalen Johnson averaging 22.9). Sacramento’s projected five average an offensive rating of 107.58, defensive rating of 121.36, and 11.02 average points made, indicating offensive limitations and defensive struggles. Those gaps in both offense and defense explain the large predicted margin.

Final Prediction

Atlanta’s superior offensive profile (117.12 vs 107.58) and cleaner defensive numbers (113.74 vs 121.36), plus positive recent momentum, give them the edge. Watch whether Sacramento can slow Atlanta’s scoring bursts — that will determine if the game stays competitive.

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