NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
90.1%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
9.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Collin Gillespie
OR
120.2
DR
115.3
PTS
13.3
VS
Cody Williams
OR
100.1
DR
124.3
PTS
8.0
SG
Devin Booker
OR
117.9
DR
117.4
PTS
25.5
VS
Elijah Harkless
OR
104.7
DR
121.6
PTS
7.0
SF
Jalen Green
OR
100.1
DR
114.7
PTS
17.7
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
106.6
DR
122.7
PTS
13.5
PF
Royce O'Neale
OR
116.0
DR
114.5
PTS
10.0
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
106.7
DR
124.8
PTS
14.1
C
Oso Ighodaro
OR
117.8
DR
112.6
PTS
6.4
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
113.1
DR
118.6
PTS
10.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model projects the Phoenix Suns to win with a 90.1% probability. Expected starting fives — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro; Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected combined total is 238.33 points, indicating a fairly high-scoring outing and a faster-than-average pace. The listed spread (Home - Away) is +16.62, giving a sizable 16.62-point advantage to the home team, even though the projection still favors Phoenix.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 238.3 Most likely outcome: 238 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Utah Jazz) 16.6 Most likely outcome: 17 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ power ratings are falling over the last five games: Phoenix down 15.0 and Utah down 28.8.

Phoenix Suns

1516.6 -15.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-24 Denver Nuggets 1516.6 -9.4
2026-03-22 Toronto Raptors 1526.0 +12.2
2026-03-21 Milwaukee Bucks 1513.8 -13.2
2026-03-19 San Antonio Spurs 1527.0 -4.6
2026-03-17 Minnesota Timberwolves 1531.6 —

Utah Jazz

1316.2 -28.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Denver Nuggets 1316.2 -2.9
2026-03-25 Washington Wizards 1319.1 -13.7
2026-03-23 Toronto Raptors 1332.8 -6.1
2026-03-21 Philadelphia 76ers 1338.9 -6.1
2026-03-19 Milwaukee Bucks 1345.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 123 125 -2
Toronto Raptors 120 98 +22
Milwaukee Bucks 105 108 -3
San Antonio Spurs 100 101 -1
Minnesota Timberwolves 104 116 -12

Utah Jazz

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 129 135 -6
Washington Wizards 110 133 -23
Toronto Raptors 127 143 -16
Philadelphia 76ers 116 126 -10
Milwaukee Bucks 128 96 +32

Game Analysis

Phoenix is 1-2 in the last three — a narrow 123-125 loss to Denver, a 120-98 win over Toronto, and a 105-108 loss to Milwaukee — showing they can both blow teams out and lose close contests. Utah is on a three-game losing streak (129-135 vs Denver, 110-133 vs Washington, 127-143 vs Toronto) and has been surrendering a lot of offense lately. That recent form favors Phoenix, especially on the offensive end. Looking at the expected starters, Phoenix’s five average offensive rating is 114.4, defensive rating 114.9, and they average 14.58 points each; Utah’s starting five averages a 106.24 offensive rating, a 122.4 defensive rating, and 10.66 points each. Those figures point to a clear Suns advantage offensively and a mismatch against Utah’s struggling defense, while Utah’s starters offer less scoring punch.

Final Prediction

Phoenix’s superior scoring profile and higher per-starter production give them the edge in this matchup. Watch Devin Booker (25.5 points per game) and whether Utah’s defense can slow him and the Suns’ supporting cast.

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