NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Indiana Pacers

Home Team
28.5%
VS

Miami Heat

Away Team
71.5%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Andrew Nembhard
OR
114.6
DR
122.7
PTS
17.0
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
120.3
DR
115.5
PTS
9.0
SG
Ben Sheppard
OR
116.9
DR
121.2
PTS
7.0
VS
Pelle Larsson
OR
118.6
DR
116.7
PTS
11.0
SF
Jarace Walker
OR
103.3
DR
118.9
PTS
11.5
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
117.4
DR
118.3
PTS
20.9
PF
Pascal Siakam
OR
110.1
DR
118.2
PTS
23.7
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
117.1
DR
113.5
PTS
15.6
C
Jay Huff
OR
110.8
DR
116.3
PTS
9.4
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
113.8
DR
110.7
PTS
20.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Miami Heat are projected to win (71.5% probability). Expected starting five — Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, Jarace Walker, Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff. Expected starting five — Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring affair with a combined total of 246.16 points, suggesting a fast pace and plenty of offense for both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away = -3.62) favors the Heat by roughly 3.6 points, effectively giving Miami the edge even if they are the road team.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 246.2 Most likely outcome: 246 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Miami Heat) -3.6 Most likely outcome: -4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Indiana’s rating has ticked up over the last five games while Miami’s has dipped, indicating rising momentum for the Pacers and a slight slide for the Heat.

Indiana Pacers

1296.7 +5.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Los Angeles Clippers 1296.7 -3.6
2026-03-25 Los Angeles Lakers 1300.3 -3.0
2026-03-23 Orlando Magic 1303.3 +13.9
2026-03-21 San Antonio Spurs 1289.4 -1.4
2026-03-18 Portland Trail Blazers 1290.8 —

Miami Heat

1519.3 -9.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.3 -8.8
2026-03-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1528.1 +14.4
2026-03-23 San Antonio Spurs 1513.7 -6.5
2026-03-21 Houston Rockets 1520.2 -8.3
2026-03-19 Los Angeles Lakers 1528.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Indiana Pacers

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 113 114 -1
Los Angeles Lakers 130 137 -7
Orlando Magic 128 126 +2
San Antonio Spurs 119 134 -15
Portland Trail Blazers 119 127 -8

Miami Heat

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 128 149 -21
Cleveland Cavaliers 120 103 +17
San Antonio Spurs 111 136 -25
Houston Rockets 122 123 -1
Los Angeles Lakers 126 134 -8

Game Analysis

Indiana is 1-2 in its last three (loss to LAC 113-114, loss to LAL 130-137, win over ORL 128-126) and has been in close contests, relying on Pascal Siakam (23.7 PTS) and Andrew Nembhard (17.0 PTS) to carry the offense. Miami is also 1-2 (loss 128-149 and a win 120-103 vs CLE, loss 111-136 at SAS), showing offensive upside but some defensive breakdowns in those blowouts allowed. Looking at starters, the Pacers’ five average an offensive rating of 111.14, defensive rating of 119.46, and 13.72 average points made — a group that can score but struggles defensively. The Heat’s projected starters average a 117.44 offensive rating, 114.94 defensive rating, and 15.34 points made, giving Miami an advantage on both ends, driven by Herro (20.9) and Adebayo (20.2).

Final Prediction

Miami’s stronger two-way numbers and higher scoring upside explain the 71.5% lean toward the Heat. Key factor to watch: whether Miami can stop the Pacers in late-game situations after recent defensive lapses.

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