Miami Heat
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Miami Heat?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 75 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Miami Heat were 9.7% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 58.7% | 67.4% | 78.1% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 65.0% | 67.3% | 69.4% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Miami Heat won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 4 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #18 | 1491 | 1572 | 1509 |
| 2024-25 | 86 | #22 | 1488 | 1534 | 1430 |
| 2023-24 | 87 | #14 | 1509 | 1558 | 1529 |
| 2022-23 | 105 | #5 | 1489 | 1633 | 1589 |
| 2021-22 | 100 | #4 | 1514 | 1653 | 1634 |
| 2020-21 | 76 | #14 | 1490 | 1568 | 1527 |
| 2019-20 | 94 | #4 | 1511 | 1638 | 1626 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #16 | 1491 | 1522 | 1490 |
| 2017-18 | 87 | #17 | 1490 | 1564 | 1502 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #9 | 1512 | 1557 | 1554 |
| 2015-16 | 96 | #8 | 1510 | 1593 | 1578 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #21 | 1510 | 1531 | 1454 |
| 2013-14 | 102 | #4 | 1510 | 1667 | 1612 |
| 2012-13 | 105 | #1 | 1510 | 1752 | 1736 |
| 2011-12 | 89 | #2 | 1512 | 1689 | 1689 |
| 2010-11 | 103 | #2 | 1490 | 1722 | 1691 |
| 2009-10 | 87 | #14 | 1511 | 1577 | 1543 |
| 2008-09 | 89 | #14 | 1491 | 1555 | 1515 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | #30 | 1488 | 1488 | 1265 |
| 2006-07 | 86 | #15 | 1485 | 1590 | 1499 |
| 2005-06 | 105 | #2 | 1512 | 1671 | 1671 |
| 2004-05 | 97 | #4 | 1513 | 1696 | 1670 |
| 2003-04 | 95 | #10 | 1490 | 1574 | 1552 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1491 | 1350 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #17 | 1509 | 1531 | 1474 |
| 2000-01 | 85 | #14 | 1512 | 1588 | 1546 |
| 1999-00 | 92 | #5 | 1510 | 1621 | 1598 |
| 1998-99 | 55 | #6 | 1488 | 1609 | 1566 |
| 1997-98 | 87 | #9 | 1510 | 1666 | 1579 |
| 1996-97 | 99 | #3 | 1510 | 1691 | 1657 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | SG | 28 | 10.2 |
| Pelle Larsson | SG | 50 | 10.1 |
| Davion Mitchell | PG | 63 | 4.7 |
| Kel'el Ware | C | 29 | 3.7 |
| Andrew Wiggins | SF | 61 | 2.8 |
| Norman Powell | SG | 48 | 2.5 |
| Bam Adebayo | C | 66 | 0.9 |
Every Miami Heat player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Atlanta Hawks | W Miami Heat 80.7% | W 143-117 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Washington Wizards | W Miami Heat 87.8% | W 140-117 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | at Toronto Raptors | L Miami Heat 16.8% | L 114-128 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Toronto Raptors | L Miami Heat 25.6% | L 95-121 ✓ |
| Apr 04, 2026 | vs Washington Wizards | W Miami Heat 91.7% | W 152-136 ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs Boston Celtics | W Miami Heat 60.5% | L 129-147 ✗ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | W Miami Heat 67.8% | W 119-109 ✓ |
| Mar 29, 2026 | at Indiana Pacers | W Miami Heat 71.5% | L 118-135 ✗ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Miami Heat 27.3% | L 128-149 ✓ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | at Cleveland Cavaliers | L Miami Heat 23.3% | W 120-103 ✗ |
Reuse this data — CC BY 4.0
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