NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Atlanta Hawks

Home Team
71.7%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
28.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
CJ McCollum
OR
112.9
DR
115.9
PTS
18.9
VS
Baylor Scheierman
OR
116.9
DR
113.1
PTS
5.0
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.0
DR
112.5
PTS
11.7
VS
Derrick White
OR
117.5
DR
112.3
PTS
17.1
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.5
DR
116.6
PTS
20.5
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.7
DR
113.4
PTS
28.6
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.6
DR
111.2
PTS
22.9
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
115.2
DR
115.4
PTS
8.9
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.1
DR
112.3
PTS
15.3
VS
Luka Garza
OR
140.6
DR
113.4
PTS
7.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Atlanta Hawks are predicted to win (71.7% probability). Expected starting fives — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. Boston Celtics: Baylor Scheierman, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Luka Garza.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 229.6 points, pointing toward a high-scoring, up-tempo game. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.6, which favors the home team by about 4.6 points — despite that, the projection still leans to Atlanta.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.6 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Boston Celtics) 4.6 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are trending up: Atlanta +13.9 over five games, Boston +16.6.

Atlanta Hawks

1569.6 +13.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Sacramento Kings 1569.6 +3.8
2026-03-27 Boston Celtics 1565.8 -7.7
2026-03-25 Detroit Pistons 1573.5 +12.3
2026-03-23 Memphis Grizzlies 1561.2 +5.5
2026-03-21 Golden State Warriors 1555.7 —

Boston Celtics

1651.1 +16.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Charlotte Hornets 1651.1 +9.9
2026-03-27 Atlanta Hawks 1641.2 +7.8
2026-03-25 Oklahoma City Thunder 1633.4 +12.2
2026-03-22 Minnesota Timberwolves 1621.2 -13.3
2026-03-20 Memphis Grizzlies 1634.5 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Atlanta Hawks

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 123 113 +10
Boston Celtics 102 109 -7
Detroit Pistons 130 129 +1
Memphis Grizzlies 146 107 +39
Golden State Warriors 126 110 +16

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Charlotte Hornets 114 99 +15
Atlanta Hawks 109 102 +7
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 92 102 -10
Memphis Grizzlies 117 112 +5

Game Analysis

Atlanta is 2-1 in its last three, with wins over Sacramento (123-113) and Detroit (130-129) and a loss to Boston (102-109). Those results show Atlanta in form and capable of close-game finishes. Boston arrives on a three-game win streak (wins over Charlotte 114-99, Atlanta 109-102, and OKC 119-109), carrying momentum and recent consistency. Looking at the expected starters: Atlanta’s five average an offensive rating of 115.82, a defensive rating of 113.70, and average points made 17.86 (totaling 89.3). Boston’s five register a higher offensive rating of 120.98, a defensive rating of 113.52, and average points made 13.42 (totaling 67.1). Boston’s starters bring more offensive efficiency on paper, while Atlanta’s unit contributes more aggregate scoring from its five and sits nearly even defensively.

Final Prediction

Atlanta’s edge comes from balanced scoring across its starters and recent success in tight finishes, which the projection favors despite a home-team spread. Key factor to watch: whether Atlanta can limit Boston’s offensive efficiency (notably the high team offensive rating) while sustaining its own balanced attack.

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