NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Portland Trail Blazers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Clippers

Home Team
74.7%
VS

Portland Trail Blazers

Away Team
25.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Garland
OR
124.8
DR
119.7
PTS
21.3
VS
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.9
DR
115.9
PTS
15.8
SG
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
123.6
DR
117.8
PTS
10.7
VS
Scoot Henderson
OR
106.7
DR
113.8
PTS
14.0
SF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
124.9
DR
112.4
PTS
28.2
VS
Deni Avdija
OR
115.6
DR
115.1
PTS
23.8
PF
John Collins
OR
120.4
DR
117.0
PTS
13.5
VS
Toumani Camara
OR
112.6
DR
116.3
PTS
13.1
C
Brook Lopez
OR
100.1
DR
115.0
PTS
8.1
VS
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.3
DR
110.0
PTS
12.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Los Angeles Clippers are projected to win (74.7% probability). Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez. Expected starting five — Portland Trail Blazers: Jrue Holiday, Scoot Henderson, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 230.97 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game and an uptempo outing for both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) of 2.14 points gives a small edge to the home side, which aligns with the Clippers being the favorite by a couple of points.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.0 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Portland Trail Blazers) 2.1 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Los Angeles’ elo has climbed sharply (+29.3 over five games) while Portland’s has risen modestly (+6.7).

Los Angeles Clippers

1556.8 +29.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Milwaukee Bucks 1556.8 +6.6
2026-03-27 Indiana Pacers 1550.2 +3.6
2026-03-25 Toronto Raptors 1546.6 +11.0
2026-03-23 Milwaukee Bucks 1535.6 +8.1
2026-03-21 Dallas Mavericks 1527.5 —

Portland Trail Blazers

1497.5 +6.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Washington Wizards 1497.5 +5.6
2026-03-27 Dallas Mavericks 1491.9 -13.8
2026-03-25 Milwaukee Bucks 1505.7 +8.8
2026-03-23 Brooklyn Nets 1496.9 +6.1
2026-03-22 Denver Nuggets 1490.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Clippers

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 127 113 +14
Indiana Pacers 114 113 +1
Toronto Raptors 119 94 +25
Milwaukee Bucks 129 96 +33
Dallas Mavericks 138 131 +7

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 123 88 +35
Dallas Mavericks 93 100 -7
Milwaukee Bucks 130 99 +31
Brooklyn Nets 134 99 +35
Denver Nuggets 112 128 -16

Game Analysis

The Clippers arrive on a three-game win streak — wins over Milwaukee (127-113), Indiana (114-113) and a dominant defensive outing vs Toronto (119-94) — showing consistency on both ends. Portland is 2-1 over their last three with convincing victories over Washington (123-88) and Milwaukee (130-99) but a close loss to Dallas (93-100), so they’ve flashed offensive potency but remain streaky. Momentum favors L.A., but Portland’s recent blowouts show they can score in bunches. Averaging the starting five numbers, the Clippers have an offensive rating of 118.76, defensive rating of 116.38 and average points made per starter of 16.36. Portland’s starters average an offensive rating of 116.02, defensive rating of 114.22 and 15.78 points per starter. That paints L.A. as a slightly stronger offensive unit on paper while Portland has a marginally better defensive profile from its group; individual scoring — Kawhi Leonard at 28.2 points — and Donovan Clingan’s 129.3 offensive rating are matchup pieces to monitor.

Final Prediction

Clippers’ recent form, rising power trend and a higher average offensive rating give them the edge. Key factor to watch: how L.A. defends Donovan Clingan and limits Portland’s efficient looks inside while Kawhi Leonard carries the scoring load.

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