NBA 2025-2026: Orlando Magic vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Orlando Magic

Home Team
63.7%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
36.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jalen Suggs
OR
107.6
DR
109.6
PTS
13.7
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
119.3
DR
115.2
PTS
13.1
SG
Desmond Bane
OR
120.2
DR
117.5
PTS
20.3
VS
Devin Booker
OR
119.0
DR
117.2
PTS
25.7
SF
Tristan Da Silva
OR
107.7
DR
115.7
PTS
10.0
VS
Jalen Green
OR
103.1
DR
114.1
PTS
18.3
PF
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.8
DR
115.7
PTS
22.6
VS
Dillon Brooks
OR
109.9
DR
116.6
PTS
20.9
C
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.9
DR
114.0
PTS
11.7
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
118.3
DR
112.6
PTS
6.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Orlando is the pick to win this one, with a 63.7% probability. Expected starting fives — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Tristan Da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.; Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Oso Ighodaro.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 231.81 points, implying a fairly high-scoring game and an up-tempo pace. The expected spread is -1.54 (home - away), a small edge to Phoenix on the point-line. Note: two separate models are being shown — one produces the win probability (favoring Orlando) and another produces the point spread — both are provided for transparency, which is why they point in different directions.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.8 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Orlando Magic - Phoenix Suns) -1.5 Most likely outcome: -2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Orlando’s power rating has been sliding (down 29.7 over five games) while Phoenix’s has been climbing (up 14.2 over five games).

Orlando Magic

1500.1 -29.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-29 Toronto Raptors 1500.1 -14.0
2026-03-26 Sacramento Kings 1514.1 +4.7
2026-03-24 Cleveland Cavaliers 1509.4 -6.5
2026-03-23 Indiana Pacers 1515.9 -13.9
2026-03-21 Los Angeles Lakers 1529.8 —

Phoenix Suns

1528.0 +14.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-30 Memphis Grizzlies 1528.0 +6.9
2026-03-28 Utah Jazz 1521.1 +4.5
2026-03-24 Denver Nuggets 1516.6 -9.4
2026-03-22 Toronto Raptors 1526.0 +12.2
2026-03-21 Milwaukee Bucks 1513.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Orlando Magic

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Toronto Raptors 87 139 -52
Sacramento Kings 121 117 +4
Cleveland Cavaliers 131 136 -5
Indiana Pacers 126 128 -2
Los Angeles Lakers 104 105 -1

Phoenix Suns

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 131 105 +26
Utah Jazz 134 109 +25
Denver Nuggets 123 125 -2
Toronto Raptors 120 98 +22
Milwaukee Bucks 105 108 -3

Game Analysis

Orlando has lost two of its last three, including an 87-139 blowout to Toronto and a tight 131-136 loss to Cleveland, sandwiched around a 121-117 win over Sacramento; those results point to inconsistency, particularly on defense. Phoenix arrives with two comfortable wins (131-105, 134-109) and a narrow 123-125 loss to Denver, showing hot offense recently. Looking at the projected starters, Orlando’s five average out to an offensive rating of 114.04, defensive rating of 114.50 and 15.66 points made per starter; Phoenix’s five average 113.92 offensively, 115.14 defensively and 16.92 points made per starter. That parity offensively and the slight defensive edge to Orlando help explain the probability lean despite Phoenix’s rising form and recent blowout wins.

Final Prediction

Orlando’s balance—with Paolo Banchero (22.6) and Wendell Carter Jr.’s high offensive rating (122.9)—gives them the edge in the probability model. Key factor to watch: whether Orlando can steady its defense and limit Devin Booker and Phoenix’s high-volume scorers.

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