NBA 2025-2026: Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Orlando Magic
Home Team
40.6%
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Away Team
59.4%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Orlando Magic
Jalen Suggs
PTS
15.1
REB
5.1
AST
6.5
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Desmond Bane
PTS
19.4
REB
4.7
AST
4.8
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Tristan Da Silva
PTS
12.6
REB
4.5
AST
2.3
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Paolo Banchero
PTS
24.8
REB
8.5
AST
5.7
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Wendell Carter Jr.
PTS
12.7
REB
8.4
AST
2.2
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
19.9
REB
3.8
AST
4.5
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dyson Daniels
PTS
12.7
REB
6.3
AST
5.5
3PM
0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
20.3
REB
4.1
AST
4.0
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
23.6
REB
8.8
AST
7.0
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
14.8
REB
6.9
AST
2.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jalen Suggs
OR
107.7
DR
109.3
PTS
13.8
VS
CJ McCollum
OR
112.2
DR
115.7
PTS
18.7
SG
Desmond Bane
OR
119.9
DR
117.4
PTS
20.3
VS
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.4
DR
112.4
PTS
11.8
SF
Tristan Da Silva
OR
107.4
DR
115.5
PTS
10.0
VS
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
116.4
DR
116.5
PTS
20.4
PF
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.6
DR
115.5
PTS
22.6
VS
Jalen Johnson
OR
116.6
DR
111.1
PTS
22.9
C
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.6
DR
113.7
PTS
11.8
VS
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.3
DR
112.1
PTS
15.4
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Atlanta Hawks are the pick to win (59.4% probability).
Expected starting five — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Tristan Da Silva, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 232.62 points, pointing to a moderately fast, scoring game rather than a slog. The expected spread is Home - Away = -1.66, meaning the away team holds about a 1.7-point edge going in.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
232.6
Most likely outcome: 232 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Orlando Magic - Atlanta Hawks)
-1.7
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Orlando’s power rating is drifting down slightly while Atlanta’s trend is clearly rising.
Orlando Magic
1510.2
-5.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Phoenix Suns | 1510.2 | +10.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Toronto Raptors | 1500.1 | -14.0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Sacramento Kings | 1514.1 | +4.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1509.4 | -6.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | Indiana Pacers | 1515.9 | — |
Atlanta Hawks
1581.8
+20.6 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Boston Celtics | 1581.8 | +12.2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Sacramento Kings | 1569.6 | +3.8 |
| 2026-03-27 | Boston Celtics | 1565.8 | -7.7 |
| 2026-03-25 | Detroit Pistons | 1573.5 | +12.3 |
| 2026-03-23 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1561.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Orlando Magic
2-3 in last 5
W
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 115 | 111 | +4 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 87 | 139 | -52 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 121 | 117 | +4 | |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 131 | 136 | -5 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 126 | 128 | -2 |
Atlanta Hawks
4-1 in last 5
W
W
L
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 102 | +10 | |
| Sacramento Kings | 123 | 113 | +10 | |
| Boston Celtics | 102 | 109 | -7 | |
| Detroit Pistons | 130 | 129 | +1 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 146 | 107 | +39 |
Game Analysis
Orlando is 2-1 across the last three: a rebound 115-111 win over Phoenix, a brutal 87-139 loss at Toronto, and a 121-117 win over Sacramento. That Toronto game stands out as a defensive collapse, but otherwise Orlando has shown it can put up points. Atlanta is also 2-1: wins of 112-102 over Boston and 123-113 over Sacramento sandwich a 102-109 loss to Boston, suggesting more consistent two-way play recently.
Looking at the projected starters, Orlando’s five average an offensive rating of about 113.8, a defensive rating near 114.3, and 15.7 points each; Atlanta’s five average roughly 115.8 offensively, 113.6 defensively, and 17.8 points each. Those margins give Atlanta a modest scoring and efficiency edge from its rotation, aligning with their upward power trend.
Final Prediction
Atlanta’s momentum and a small starting-five advantage tilt this toward the Hawks. Watch the interior matchup and how Paolo Banchero’s scoring is contained — that will likely decide a close game.
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