NBA 2025-2026: Toronto Raptors vs Sacramento Kings: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Toronto Raptors
Home Team
91.4%
VS
Sacramento Kings
Away Team
8.6%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Toronto Raptors
Jamal Shead
PTS
9.6
REB
2.3
AST
7.4
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Ja'Kobe Walter
PTS
10.0
REB
3.0
AST
1.9
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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RJ Barrett
PTS
21.5
REB
4.7
AST
3.5
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Scottie Barnes
PTS
19.1
REB
6.8
AST
7.4
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jakob Poeltl
PTS
12.3
REB
7.2
AST
1.8
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Sacramento Kings
Devin Carter
PTS
12.4
REB
3.9
AST
4.4
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Nique Clifford
PTS
9.7
REB
4.1
AST
3.1
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
DeMar DeRozan
PTS
19.0
REB
3.5
AST
5.1
3PM
0.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Precious Achiuwa
PTS
12.5
REB
7.7
AST
1.8
3PM
0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Maxime Raynaud
PTS
13.9
REB
8.1
AST
1.8
3PM
0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Jamal Shead
OR
113.5
DR
115.4
PTS
6.5
VS
Devin Carter
OR
96.8
DR
122.4
PTS
7.9
SG
Ja'Kobe Walter
OR
109.9
DR
114.4
PTS
7.2
VS
Nique Clifford
OR
91.9
DR
121.6
PTS
7.8
SF
RJ Barrett
OR
115.9
DR
114.8
PTS
19.1
VS
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.0
DR
123.9
PTS
18.5
PF
Scottie Barnes
OR
115.2
DR
110.1
PTS
18.4
VS
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.3
DR
118.8
PTS
9.6
C
Jakob Poeltl
OR
128.4
DR
110.5
PTS
10.6
VS
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.8
DR
120.9
PTS
12.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors are projected to win (91.4% probability).
Expected starting fives — Toronto: Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl. Sacramento: Devin Carter, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 224.09 combined points, signaling a moderately high-scoring game with an up-tempo look. The projected spread is 10.01 (Home - Away), giving roughly a 10-point edge to the home side and a comfortable cushion for the favorite.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.1
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Toronto Raptors - Sacramento Kings)
10.0
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Toronto’s power rating has ticked up modestly (+3.5 over five games) while Sacramento’s has been sliding (-25.1 over five games).
Toronto Raptors
1530.6
+3.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Detroit Pistons | 1530.6 | -7.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Orlando Magic | 1537.7 | +14.0 |
| 2026-03-27 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1523.7 | +7.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1516.1 | -11.0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Utah Jazz | 1527.1 | — |
Sacramento Kings
1325.1
-25.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Brooklyn Nets | 1325.1 | -11.9 |
| 2026-03-28 | Atlanta Hawks | 1337.0 | -3.8 |
| 2026-03-26 | Orlando Magic | 1340.8 | -4.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | Charlotte Hornets | 1345.5 | -4.7 |
| 2026-03-22 | Brooklyn Nets | 1350.2 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Toronto Raptors
3-2 in last 5
L
W
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 116 | 127 | -11 | |
| Orlando Magic | 139 | 87 | +52 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 119 | 106 | +13 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 94 | 119 | -25 | |
| Utah Jazz | 143 | 127 | +16 |
Sacramento Kings
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Nets | 99 | 116 | -17 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 113 | 123 | -10 | |
| Orlando Magic | 117 | 121 | -4 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 90 | 134 | -44 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 126 | 122 | +4 |
Game Analysis
Toronto comes in 2-1 over the last three with a dominant 139-87 win over Orlando and a solid 119-106 victory over New Orleans, bookending a 116-127 loss to Detroit — showing they can score in bunches but remain vulnerable on a bad night. Sacramento is on a three-game skid, losing 99-116, 113-123 and 117-121, which points to defensive breakdowns and trouble closing out games.
Looking at the expected starters, Toronto’s five average an offensive rating of about 116.6 and a defensive rating near 113.0, combining for 61.8 points per game as a unit (12.36 per player). Sacramento’s projected five average an offensive rating of about 107.6 and a defensive rating near 121.5, combining for 55.8 points (11.16 per player). That gap — better offense and markedly better defense for Toronto’s starters — explains much of the projected advantage.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s healthier two-way profile and recent form give them the clear edge in this projection. Watch Jakob Poeltl’s rim protection and how Sacramento defends him — that matchup will largely determine whether the Kings can keep this within reach.
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