NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
96.2%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
3.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Houston Rockets
PTS 14.9 REB 3.4 AST 4.7 3PM 3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 6.9 AST 6.1 3PM 0.4
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PTS 17.1 REB 6.8 AST 2.6 3PM 2.7
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PTS 24.6 REB 5.2 AST 6.4 3PM 2.7
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PTS 20.8 REB 8.7 AST 6.2 3PM 0.8
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AWAY Utah Jazz
PTS 12.9 REB 3.8 AST 3.8 3PM 0.9
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PTS 15.1 REB 4.5 AST 2.6 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 16.5 REB 4.3 AST 3.5 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 15.3 REB 8.2 AST 3.9 3PM 1.6
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PTS 8.2 REB 7.6 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Reed Sheppard
OR
117.1
DR
112.4
PTS
13.7
VS
Cody Williams
OR
98.7
DR
124.4
PTS
8.2
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
124.5
DR
114.1
PTS
17.9
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
105.8
DR
123.1
PTS
13.5
SF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
121.8
DR
114.6
PTS
15.5
VS
Brice Sensabaugh
OR
107.0
DR
124.9
PTS
14.5
PF
Kevin Durant
OR
124.7
DR
115.0
PTS
25.8
VS
Kyle Filipowski
OR
114.3
DR
118.5
PTS
11.3
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
117.4
DR
111.6
PTS
20.6
VS
Oscar Tshiebwe
OR
137.5
DR
122.6
PTS
6.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets to win (96.2% probability). Expected starting five — Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün. Expected starting five — Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski, Oscar Tshiebwe.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a high-scoring game with a combined total of about 238.67 points, suggesting a very fast pace and plenty of scoring opportunities. The expected spread is 16.7 points (home minus away), a large margin that gives the home Houston Rockets a clear advantage on the board.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 238.7 Most likely outcome: 238 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Utah Jazz) 16.7 Most likely outcome: 17 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s power rating is rising (+31.7 over five games) while Utah’s is sliding (-14.0 over five games).

Houston Rockets

1574.7 +31.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1574.7 +4.8
2026-03-31 New York Knicks 1569.9 +12.3
2026-03-29 New Orleans Pelicans 1557.6 +9.2
2026-03-27 Memphis Grizzlies 1548.4 +5.4
2026-03-25 Minnesota Timberwolves 1543.0 —

Utah Jazz

1305.1 -14.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Denver Nuggets 1305.1 -3.3
2026-03-30 Cleveland Cavaliers 1308.4 -3.3
2026-03-28 Phoenix Suns 1311.7 -4.5
2026-03-27 Denver Nuggets 1316.2 -2.9
2026-03-25 Washington Wizards 1319.1 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 119 113 +6
New York Knicks 111 94 +17
New Orleans Pelicans 134 102 +32
Memphis Grizzlies 119 109 +10
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 110 -2

Utah Jazz

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 117 130 -13
Cleveland Cavaliers 113 122 -9
Phoenix Suns 109 134 -25
Denver Nuggets 129 135 -6
Washington Wizards 110 133 -23

Game Analysis

Houston arrives on a three-game winning streak (wins: 119-113 vs Milwaukee, 111-94 vs New York, 134-102 vs New Orleans) showing both scoring punch and consistency. Utah is on a three-game skid (losses: 117-130 vs Denver, 113-122 vs Cleveland, 109-134 vs Phoenix), with recent defensive lapses and difficulty containing opposing offenses. Those short-term results favor Houston’s momentum and confidence. Looking at the projected starting fives, Houston’s group averages an offensive rating of about 121.1 and a defensive rating near 113.5, with starters averaging roughly 18.7 points apiece — a balanced, high-end attacking unit. Utah’s projected starters average approximately a 112.7 offensive rating and a 122.7 defensive rating, with about 10.7 points per starter; that gap on both ends explains why Utah struggles to keep games close against strong offenses.

Final Prediction

The Rockets’ hot form, superior offensive profile, and improving power rating give them the edge. Watch whether Utah can tighten its defense enough to slow Kevin Durant and Houston’s starters — that defensive response will decide how competitive this game becomes.

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