NBA 2025-2026: Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Miami Heat

Home Team
91.7%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
8.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Miami Heat
PTS 11.5 REB 3.2 AST 7.0 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.1 REB 4.5 AST 5.0 3PM 1.4
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PTS 22.5 REB 4.4 AST 5.0 3PM 3.3
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.7 REB 5.3 AST 2.8 3PM 2.3
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PTS 23.6 REB 10.8 AST 4.0 3PM 2.5
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AWAY Washington Wizards
PTS 12.4 REB 3.3 AST 5.2 3PM 2.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 3.7 AST 2.3 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.8 REB 4.7 AST 2.5 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 14.9 REB 4.1 AST 2.7 3PM 1.7
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PTS 15.3 REB 12.1 AST 2.4 3PM 0.0
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Davion Mitchell
OR
120.9
DR
116.2
PTS
9.2
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
106.8
DR
125.1
PTS
10.2
SG
Pelle Larsson
OR
119.3
DR
117.2
PTS
11.3
VS
Tre Johnson
OR
103.4
DR
124.3
PTS
12.2
SF
Tyler Herro
OR
117.7
DR
119.5
PTS
21.4
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.0
DR
120.1
PTS
11.3
PF
Andrew Wiggins
OR
117.7
DR
114.0
PTS
15.6
VS
Will Riley
OR
107.0
DR
125.0
PTS
9.6
C
Bam Adebayo
OR
114.0
DR
111.4
PTS
20.3
VS
Julian Reese
OR
104.7
DR
119.6
PTS
11.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Miami Heat are projected to win (91.7% probability). Expected starting five — Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo. Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Julian Reese.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 240.68 points, suggesting an up-tempo game with plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams. The 15.47-point spread (home minus away) heavily favors the home team, giving Miami a large expected advantage heading into the matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 240.7 Most likely outcome: 240 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Miami Heat - Washington Wizards) 15.5 Most likely outcome: 16 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

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ELO Rating Trends

Both teams' ratings are on the decline over the last five games: Miami fell from 1528.1 to 1506.3 and Washington dropped from 1312.6 to 1293.9.

Miami Heat

1506.3 -21.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Boston Celtics 1506.3 -7.8
2026-03-30 Philadelphia 76ers 1514.1 +10.8
2026-03-29 Indiana Pacers 1503.3 -16.0
2026-03-27 Cleveland Cavaliers 1519.3 -8.8
2026-03-25 Cleveland Cavaliers 1528.1 —

Washington Wizards

1293.9 -18.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-01 Philadelphia 76ers 1293.9 -5.3
2026-03-30 Los Angeles Lakers 1299.2 -2.5
2026-03-29 Portland Trail Blazers 1301.7 -5.6
2026-03-27 Golden State Warriors 1307.3 -5.3
2026-03-25 Utah Jazz 1312.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Miami Heat

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 129 147 -18
Philadelphia 76ers 119 109 +10
Indiana Pacers 118 135 -17
Cleveland Cavaliers 128 149 -21
Cleveland Cavaliers 120 103 +17

Washington Wizards

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Philadelphia 76ers 131 153 -22
Los Angeles Lakers 101 120 -19
Portland Trail Blazers 88 123 -35
Golden State Warriors 126 131 -5
Utah Jazz 133 110 +23

Game Analysis

Miami is 1-2 over the last three games (loss to Boston 129-147, win vs Philadelphia 119-109, loss at Indiana 118-135). Those results show Miami can score (119, 129) but has given up big totals recently (147, 135), which exposes defensive inconsistencies. Washington is in a tougher stretch, losing three straight (131-153, 101-120, 88-123) and struggling on both ends of the floor with scoring dipping to 88 in the most recent game. Looking at the projected starters, Miami’s five average out to an offensive rating of about 117.92, defensive rating near 115.66, and average points made about 15.56 per starter; that group includes Tyler Herro (21.4) and Bam Adebayo (20.3) as primary scorers. Washington’s starters average roughly a 105.78 offensive rating, 122.82 defensive rating, and about 10.94 points made per starter, indicating both an offensive shortfall and tougher defense numbers than Miami.

Final Prediction

Miami’s clear edge in offensive and defensive ratings and higher scoring from its starters explains the large predicted margin. Watch how Miami defends in transition and whether Herro and Adebayo get their usual production — that should determine if the projected spread materializes.

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