NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
38.3%
VS
Phoenix Suns
Away Team
61.7%
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HOME Chicago Bulls
Josh Giddey
PTS
18.0
REB
7.8
AST
8.9
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Tre Jones
PTS
16.5
REB
4.3
AST
6.5
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Isaac Okoro
PTS
10.9
REB
3.7
AST
2.3
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Matas Buzelis
PTS
18.7
REB
6.8
AST
3.0
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
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Nick Richards
PTS
11.3
REB
7.3
AST
1.8
3PM
0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Phoenix Suns
Collin Gillespie
PTS
12.6
REB
3.6
AST
4.7
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Devin Booker
PTS
26.3
REB
4.0
AST
6.0
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jalen Green
PTS
20.6
REB
4.4
AST
3.8
3PM
3.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dillon Brooks
PTS
18.5
REB
3.9
AST
1.9
3PM
2.5
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Oso Ighodaro
PTS
7.8
REB
6.3
AST
2.9
3PM
0.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Josh Giddey
OR
111.1
DR
117.1
PTS
17.0
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
118.9
DR
115.3
PTS
13.0
SG
Tre Jones
OR
128.8
DR
118.7
PTS
13.4
VS
Devin Booker
OR
119.0
DR
117.2
PTS
25.7
SF
Isaac Okoro
OR
115.3
DR
121.4
PTS
9.2
VS
Jalen Green
OR
102.4
DR
114.2
PTS
18.2
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
108.4
DR
117.4
PTS
16.3
VS
Dillon Brooks
OR
109.1
DR
116.8
PTS
20.5
C
Nick Richards
OR
105.2
DR
115.8
PTS
9.4
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
118.6
DR
112.7
PTS
6.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
The model leans to the Phoenix Suns to win with a 61.7% probability. Expected starting fives — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nick Richards; Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Oso Ighodaro.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 242.37 points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game environment where both offenses could push the pace. The expected spread is Home - Away = -6.56, which implies the away team is favored by about 6.6 points; the Suns are the side with the advantage in this projection.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
242.4
Most likely outcome: 242 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Phoenix Suns)
-6.6
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Chicago’s power rating has fallen notably over the last five games while Phoenix’s rating has dipped only modestly, so both are downward but Chicago’s slide is steeper.
Chicago Bulls
1368.0
-31.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | New York Knicks | 1368.0 | -5.0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Indiana Pacers | 1373.0 | -13.7 |
| 2026-03-30 | San Antonio Spurs | 1386.7 | -2.3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1389.0 | -10.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1399.5 | — |
Phoenix Suns
1509.3
-7.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Charlotte Hornets | 1509.3 | -8.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | Orlando Magic | 1517.9 | -10.1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1528.0 | +6.9 |
| 2026-03-28 | Utah Jazz | 1521.1 | +4.5 |
| 2026-03-24 | Denver Nuggets | 1516.6 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Chicago Bulls
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 96 | 136 | -40 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 126 | 145 | -19 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 114 | 129 | -15 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 124 | 125 | -1 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 113 | 131 | -18 |
Phoenix Suns
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Hornets | 107 | 127 | -20 | |
| Orlando Magic | 111 | 115 | -4 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 131 | 105 | +26 | |
| Utah Jazz | 134 | 109 | +25 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 123 | 125 | -2 |
Game Analysis
Chicago arrives on a three-game losing streak (96-136, 126-145, 114-129) with large defensive concessions in each outing. Phoenix is 1-2 in the last three but flashed balance in a 131-105 win and otherwise stayed competitive in a close 111-115 loss and a 107-127 setback.
Looking at the projected starters, Chicago’s five average offensive rating is 113.8, defensive rating 118.1, and average points made per starter 13.06 — a group that scores modestly but has struggled defensively. Phoenix’s starters average offensive rating 113.6, defensive rating 115.2, and average points made 16.78; Devin Booker (25.7) and Dillon Brooks (20.5) give Phoenix more reliable scoring punch and a marginally better defensive profile among the five.
Final Prediction
The Suns’ combination of higher scoring from the projected starters and a steadier power-rating trend gives them the edge in this matchup. Watch how Phoenix defends in the paint and whether Chicago can stop Booker and Brooks; that matchup balance will likely decide the game.
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