NBA 2025-2026: Sacramento Kings vs Los Angeles Clippers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Sacramento Kings

Home Team
17.2%
VS

Los Angeles Clippers

Away Team
82.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Sacramento Kings
PTS 11.1 REB 4.0 AST 4.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.4 REB 4.0 AST 3.7 3PM 1.7
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PTS 19.8 REB 3.5 AST 5.0 3PM 1.0
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PTS 12.4 REB 7.7 AST 1.8 3PM 0.3
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PTS 12.8 REB 7.8 AST 1.7 3PM 0.3
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AWAY Los Angeles Clippers
PTS 21.3 REB 2.7 AST 6.6 3PM 3.2
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PTS 10.3 REB 3.4 AST 1.7 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 26.7 REB 6.1 AST 4.1 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 13.4 REB 5.0 AST 1.5 3PM 1.1
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PTS 12.1 REB 4.9 AST 1.6 3PM 1.9
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Devin Carter
OR
97.5
DR
122.1
PTS
8.1
VS
Darius Garland
OR
118.9
DR
120.2
PTS
20.5
SG
Nique Clifford
OR
92.2
DR
121.5
PTS
8.0
VS
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
121.9
DR
118.2
PTS
10.4
SF
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.7
DR
123.8
PTS
18.6
VS
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.2
DR
112.6
PTS
28.0
PF
Precious Achiuwa
OR
114.6
DR
118.8
PTS
9.9
VS
John Collins
OR
122.3
DR
117.2
PTS
13.6
C
Maxime Raynaud
OR
114.5
DR
120.9
PTS
12.1
VS
Brook Lopez
OR
99.9
DR
115.2
PTS
8.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Los Angeles Clippers are the pick to win (82.8% probability). Expected starting fives — Sacramento Kings: Devin Carter, Nique Clifford, DeMar DeRozan, Precious Achiuwa, Maxime Raynaud; Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Brook Lopez.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 229.61 points, signaling a game that should play at a relatively high tempo with both teams able to score. The expected spread is -12.97 (Home - Away), meaning the road Clippers are projected to have roughly a 13-point advantage over the Kings.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.6 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Sacramento Kings - Los Angeles Clippers) -13.0 Most likely outcome: -13 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Sacramento’s power rating has trended upward over five games (+10.6) while Los Angeles has slipped slightly (-9.1).

Sacramento Kings

1351.4 +10.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-03 New Orleans Pelicans 1351.4 +11.5
2026-04-01 Toronto Raptors 1339.9 +14.8
2026-03-29 Brooklyn Nets 1325.1 -11.9
2026-03-28 Atlanta Hawks 1337.0 -3.8
2026-03-26 Orlando Magic 1340.8 —

Los Angeles Clippers

1537.5 -9.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-02 San Antonio Spurs 1537.5 -6.4
2026-03-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1543.9 -12.9
2026-03-29 Milwaukee Bucks 1556.8 +6.6
2026-03-27 Indiana Pacers 1550.2 +3.6
2026-03-25 Toronto Raptors 1546.6 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Sacramento Kings

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 117 113 +4
Toronto Raptors 123 115 +8
Brooklyn Nets 99 116 -17
Atlanta Hawks 113 123 -10
Orlando Magic 117 121 -4

Los Angeles Clippers

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 99 118 -19
Portland Trail Blazers 104 114 -10
Milwaukee Bucks 127 113 +14
Indiana Pacers 114 113 +1
Toronto Raptors 119 94 +25

Game Analysis

Sacramento enters off two straight wins (117-113 vs New Orleans, 123-115 vs Toronto) after a 99-116 loss to Brooklyn, showing they can score in bunches but also vulnerable in a slower, defensive matchup. The Kings rely on DeMar DeRozan’s scoring (part of a starting-five average of 11.34 points) and a rotation that has averaged an offensive rating of 108.10 and a defensive rating of 121.42 among the projected starters — solid offense in spots but a clear defensive drag. The Clippers have been inconsistent (losses 99-118 and 104-114, then a 127-113 win) but boast a stronger starting-five profile: average offensive rating 117.64, defensive rating 116.68, and average points made 16.14. Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland anchor that efficiency, and the numbers suggest Los Angeles can both create shots and defend more effectively than Sacramento’s starters.

Final Prediction

The Clippers’ superior starting-five efficiency and the nearly 13-point projected spread give them the edge. Watch how Sacramento defends in the paint and whether the Kings can slow the Clippers’ transition scoring — that will decide if the gap narrows.

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