NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Clippers

Home Team
76.1%
VS

Dallas Mavericks

Away Team
23.9%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Los Angeles Clippers
PTS 20.9 REB 3.0 AST 6.6 3PM 3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 7.9 REB 3.5 AST 4.3 3PM 1.0
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PTS 9.6 REB 3.9 AST 1.7 3PM 0.9
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PTS 26.3 REB 6.8 AST 4.1 3PM 2.7
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PTS 11.4 REB 5.3 AST 1.6 3PM 1.8
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AWAY Dallas Mavericks
PTS 11.9 REB 3.0 AST 2.3 3PM 2.4
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PTS 24.3 REB 5.9 AST 4.7 3PM 1.5
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PTS 16.7 REB 4.5 AST 3.8 3PM 1.0
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PTS 12.5 REB 6.6 AST 1.7 3PM 0.8
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PTS 13.7 REB 6.1 AST 1.7 3PM 1.6
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Garland
OR
119.0
DR
119.4
PTS
20.3
VS
Max Christie
OR
112.4
DR
119.2
PTS
12.2
SG
Kris Dunn
OR
118.0
DR
115.9
PTS
7.5
VS
Cooper Flagg
OR
108.5
DR
115.1
PTS
21.1
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
122.2
DR
118.0
PTS
10.3
VS
Naji Marshall
OR
114.9
DR
117.2
PTS
15.4
PF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.4
DR
112.6
PTS
28.0
VS
Marvin Bagley III
OR
123.2
DR
121.5
PTS
10.5
C
Brook Lopez
OR
100.2
DR
115.2
PTS
8.2
VS
P.J. Washington
OR
103.7
DR
114.3
PTS
14.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Los Angeles Clippers are the pick to win (81.4% probability). Expected starters — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez. Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Marvin Bagley III, P.J. Washington.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.71 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring affair and a quicker pace than a typical halfcourt slugfest. The projected spread is Home - Away = 10.76, giving the home team (Clippers) a sizable edge on the scoreboard.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.7 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Dallas Mavericks) 10.8 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are trending downward over the last five games: Clippers down 6.2 points, Mavericks down 8.5 points, with the Clippers a bit more stable.

Los Angeles Clippers

1544.0 -6.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Sacramento Kings 1544.0 +6.5
2026-04-02 San Antonio Spurs 1537.5 -6.4
2026-03-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1543.9 -12.9
2026-03-29 Milwaukee Bucks 1556.8 +6.6
2026-03-27 Indiana Pacers 1550.2 —

Dallas Mavericks

1359.7 -8.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-05 Los Angeles Lakers 1359.7 +14.6
2026-04-03 Orlando Magic 1345.1 -6.6
2026-03-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1351.7 -10.1
2026-03-30 Minnesota Timberwolves 1361.8 -6.4
2026-03-27 Portland Trail Blazers 1368.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Clippers

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 138 109 +29
San Antonio Spurs 99 118 -19
Portland Trail Blazers 104 114 -10
Milwaukee Bucks 127 113 +14
Indiana Pacers 114 113 +1

Dallas Mavericks

2-3 in last 5
W L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Lakers 134 128 +6
Orlando Magic 127 138 -11
Milwaukee Bucks 99 123 -24
Minnesota Timberwolves 94 124 -30
Portland Trail Blazers 100 93 +7

Game Analysis

Form-wise both clubs are 1-2 over their last three: the Clippers beat Sacramento 138-109 but followed with losses at San Antonio (99-118) and Portland (104-114), showing offensive upside but inconsistent defense. Dallas beat the Lakers 134-128 but dropped nights against Orlando (127-138) and Milwaukee (99-123), also exposing defensive lapses despite flashes of scoring punch. Looking at the expected starting fives, the Clippers’ group averages an offensive rating of 116.96, defensive rating of 116.22, and 14.86 points made per starter — a balanced, efficient unit led by Kawhi Leonard. The Mavericks’ starters average a 112.54 offensive rating, 117.46 defensive rating, and 14.68 points made per starter; they have scoring threats but slightly weaker overall efficiency and team defense on paper. Those small edges on both ends for LA help explain the large spread.

Final Prediction

The Clippers’ combination of higher offensive efficiency and marginally better team defense gives them the clear edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: can Dallas stop penetration and limit the Clippers’ transition scoring, which is likely to decide whether the game stays close.

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