NBA 2025-2026: Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Atlanta Hawks
Home Team
70.7%
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers
Away Team
29.3%
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HOME Atlanta Hawks
CJ McCollum
PTS
18.7
REB
3.6
AST
5.0
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Dyson Daniels
PTS
13.3
REB
6.9
AST
6.0
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Nickeil Alexander-Walker
PTS
21.3
REB
4.2
AST
4.0
3PM
3.2
Distribution (PDF)
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Jalen Johnson
PTS
22.2
REB
10.4
AST
7.0
3PM
1.6
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Onyeka Okongwu
PTS
16.1
REB
7.5
AST
2.8
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
James Harden
PTS
20.2
REB
4.0
AST
6.7
3PM
3.1
Distribution (PDF)
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Keon Ellis
PTS
8.8
REB
3.4
AST
2.2
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Max Strus
PTS
11.3
REB
4.7
AST
2.4
3PM
3.2
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Dean Wade
PTS
6.5
REB
4.2
AST
2.0
3PM
1.8
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Evan Mobley
PTS
16.7
REB
8.6
AST
3.6
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
CJ McCollum
OR
112.2
DR
114.8
PTS
18.4
VS
James Harden
OR
125.0
DR
117.6
PTS
20.6
SG
Dyson Daniels
OR
117.6
DR
111.9
PTS
11.8
VS
Keon Ellis
OR
129.2
DR
114.2
PTS
8.5
SF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
117.0
DR
116.1
PTS
20.9
VS
Max Strus
OR
116.5
DR
120.9
PTS
12.2
PF
Jalen Johnson
OR
115.8
DR
110.8
PTS
22.6
VS
Dean Wade
OR
127.6
DR
114.7
PTS
5.8
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
116.5
DR
111.9
PTS
15.4
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
120.1
DR
112.2
PTS
18.3
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Atlanta Hawks by 70.7% probability. Expected starting five — Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu. Cleveland Cavaliers: James Harden, Keon Ellis, Max Strus, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The combined total is expected to be 229.99 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and a brisk pace from both teams. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 4.75 points in favor of the home side; despite that edge, the pick remains Atlanta.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
230.0
Most likely outcome: 230 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Cleveland Cavaliers)
4.8
Most likely outcome: 4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Atlanta’s power rating has dipped slightly over the past five games while Cleveland’s has risen markedly.
Atlanta Hawks
1577.3
-4.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1577.3 | -8.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | New York Knicks | 1586.1 | -10.5 |
| 2026-04-03 | Brooklyn Nets | 1596.6 | +4.4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Orlando Magic | 1592.2 | +10.4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Boston Celtics | 1581.8 | — |
Cleveland Cavaliers
1616.5
+21.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | Atlanta Hawks | 1616.5 | +8.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1607.7 | +3.7 |
| 2026-04-05 | Indiana Pacers | 1604.0 | +2.7 |
| 2026-04-02 | Golden State Warriors | 1601.3 | +6.5 |
| 2026-03-31 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1594.8 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Atlanta Hawks
3-2 in last 5
L
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 116 | 122 | -6 | |
| New York Knicks | 105 | 108 | -3 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 141 | 107 | +34 | |
| Orlando Magic | 130 | 101 | +29 | |
| Boston Celtics | 112 | 102 | +10 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-1 in last 5
W
W
W
W
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 122 | 116 | +6 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 142 | 126 | +16 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 117 | 108 | +9 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 118 | 111 | +7 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 113 | 127 | -14 |
Game Analysis
Atlanta is 1-2 in its last three, dropping tight games to Cleveland (116-122) and New York (105-108) before blowing out Brooklyn 141-107; that shows both inconsistency and the ability to explode offensively. Cleveland is on a three-game winning streak, including the earlier win over Atlanta and high-scoring victories against Memphis (142-126) and Indiana (117-108), reflecting strong form and momentum.
Looking at the expected starters: Atlanta’s group averages an offensive rating of 115.82, defensive rating of 113.10, and 17.82 average points made per starter, showing balanced scoring and respectable defense. Cleveland’s starting five carries a higher offensive rating (123.68) but a higher defensive rating (115.92) and a lower average points made per starter (13.08), indicating offensive firepower concentrated in fewer players. That contrast — Cavs’ concentrated offense vs. Hawks’ balanced starters — will shape possessions.
Final Prediction
Atlanta’s balance across its starting five and the capacity for a high-output game give them the edge despite Cleveland’s hotter streak and the home-side spread. Key factor to watch: how Evan Mobley and Onyeka Okongwu match up on the glass and in pick-and-roll actions.
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