NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Orlando Magic: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Chicago Bulls

Home Team
39.6%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
60.4%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Chicago Bulls
PTS 17.6 REB 7.0 AST 7.7 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.7 REB 3.9 AST 6.5 3PM 0.8
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PTS 11.1 REB 3.5 AST 2.5 3PM 1.4
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PTS 17.5 REB 6.8 AST 2.9 3PM 2.1
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PTS 12.6 REB 6.2 AST 2.2 3PM 1.8
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AWAY Orlando Magic
PTS 15.1 REB 3.9 AST 6.5 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.9 REB 4.1 AST 3.8 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.0 REB 4.5 AST 2.9 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 22.8 REB 8.3 AST 4.8 3PM 1.3
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PTS 13.6 REB 6.9 AST 1.6 3PM 1.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Josh Giddey
OR
111.1
DR
117.1
PTS
17.0
VS
Jalen Suggs
OR
108.2
DR
109.4
PTS
13.7
SG
Tre Jones
OR
129.6
DR
118.1
PTS
14.0
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
119.9
DR
117.1
PTS
20.5
SF
Isaac Okoro
OR
115.5
DR
120.8
PTS
9.3
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
120.8
DR
114.1
PTS
20.4
PF
Matas Buzelis
OR
108.4
DR
117.4
PTS
16.3
VS
Paolo Banchero
OR
111.7
DR
115.2
PTS
22.3
C
Guerschon Yabusele
OR
112.9
DR
117.4
PTS
10.0
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
122.8
DR
113.8
PTS
11.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Orlando Magic are predicted to win (60.4% probability). Expected starting five — Chicago Bulls: Josh Giddey, Tre Jones, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Guerschon Yabusele. Expected starting five — Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 240.57 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring game where both offenses should find room to operate. The expected spread is -6.08 (Home - Away), effectively giving Orlando about a 6-point edge and making them the clear favorite.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 240.6 Most likely outcome: 240 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Orlando Magic) -6.1 Most likely outcome: -7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Chicago’s power rating has ticked up modestly (+6.9 over five games), while Orlando’s has surged considerably (+39.8), indicating much stronger recent momentum for the Magic.

Chicago Bulls

1379.9 +6.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-09 Washington Wizards 1379.9 +8.1
2026-04-07 Washington Wizards 1371.8 +10.4
2026-04-05 Phoenix Suns 1361.4 -6.6
2026-04-03 New York Knicks 1368.0 -5.0
2026-04-01 Indiana Pacers 1373.0 —

Orlando Magic

1539.5 +39.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-08 Minnesota Timberwolves 1539.5 +11.0
2026-04-06 Detroit Pistons 1528.5 +14.4
2026-04-05 New Orleans Pelicans 1514.1 +7.8
2026-04-03 Dallas Mavericks 1506.3 +6.6
2026-04-01 Atlanta Hawks 1499.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Chicago Bulls

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 119 108 +11
Washington Wizards 129 98 +31
Phoenix Suns 110 120 -10
New York Knicks 96 136 -40
Indiana Pacers 126 145 -19

Orlando Magic

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 132 120 +12
Detroit Pistons 123 107 +16
New Orleans Pelicans 112 108 +4
Dallas Mavericks 138 127 +11
Atlanta Hawks 101 130 -29

Game Analysis

Chicago enters off two wins over Washington (129-98, 119-108) and a loss to Phoenix (110-120), showing they can score in bunches but also concede points. Orlando is on a three-game winning streak (wins over Minnesota 132-120, Detroit 123-107, New Orleans 112-108) and looks more consistent on both ends lately. On paper the Bulls’ projected starting five average an offensive rating of 115.5, defensive rating of 118.16, and 13.32 points made per starter; the Magic’s starters average an offensive rating of 116.68, defensive rating of 113.92, and 17.76 points made per starter. That gap suggests Orlando has a slight edge in both scoring from starters and team defense, which should matter in a close, high-scoring matchup.

Final Prediction

Orlando’s stronger recent form and better starting-five production give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Orlando’s starters can keep forcing high-efficiency looks while holding the Bulls under their defensive rating — that matchup will likely decide the game.

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