NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Miami Heat: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Washington Wizards
Home Team
12.2%
VS
Miami Heat
Away Team
87.8%
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HOME Washington Wizards
Bub Carrington
PTS
13.5
REB
3.5
AST
5.8
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Tre Johnson
PTS
14.5
REB
3.6
AST
3.4
3PM
2.4
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Bilal Coulibaly
PTS
14.9
REB
4.8
AST
2.7
3PM
1.5
Distribution (PDF)
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Will Riley
PTS
16.8
REB
4.8
AST
3.7
3PM
2.0
Distribution (PDF)
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Julian Reese
PTS
14.6
REB
12.5
AST
2.8
3PM
0.1
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AWAY Miami Heat
Davion Mitchell
PTS
11.9
REB
3.4
AST
7.4
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
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Norman Powell
PTS
20.5
REB
3.7
AST
2.6
3PM
2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Tyler Herro
PTS
21.0
REB
5.0
AST
5.2
3PM
3.0
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Andrew Wiggins
PTS
16.0
REB
5.4
AST
2.8
3PM
2.3
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Bam Adebayo
PTS
21.8
REB
10.4
AST
4.4
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Bub Carrington
OR
106.4
DR
125.4
PTS
10.4
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
121.0
DR
116.9
PTS
9.3
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
103.2
DR
124.6
PTS
12.2
VS
Norman Powell
OR
113.9
DR
116.4
PTS
21.7
SF
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.4
DR
120.4
PTS
11.5
VS
Tyler Herro
OR
118.5
DR
120.1
PTS
21.0
PF
Will Riley
OR
107.0
DR
124.8
PTS
10.3
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
117.9
DR
114.7
PTS
15.6
C
Julian Reese
OR
104.7
DR
120.4
PTS
11.8
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
114.4
DR
111.9
PTS
20.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Miami Heat are the pick to win (87.8% probability). Expected starting fives — Washington Wizards: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Julian Reese. Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 244.76 points, suggesting a fast, high-scoring affair with both teams capable of putting up big numbers. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -8.98, giving the Heat roughly a nine-point advantage and marking them as clear favorites.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
244.8
Most likely outcome: 245 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Miami Heat)
-9.0
Most likely outcome: -9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings have been sliding recently: Washington down 31.5 over five games and Miami down 24.4.
Washington Wizards
1262.4
-31.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Chicago Bulls | 1262.4 | -8.1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Chicago Bulls | 1270.5 | -10.3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Brooklyn Nets | 1280.8 | -8.9 |
| 2026-04-04 | Miami Heat | 1289.7 | -4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1293.9 | — |
Miami Heat
1489.7
-24.4 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Toronto Raptors | 1489.7 | -9.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | Toronto Raptors | 1499.2 | -11.3 |
| 2026-04-04 | Washington Wizards | 1510.5 | +4.2 |
| 2026-04-01 | Boston Celtics | 1506.3 | -7.8 |
| 2026-03-30 | Philadelphia 76ers | 1514.1 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 108 | 119 | -11 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 98 | 129 | -31 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 115 | 121 | -6 | |
| Miami Heat | 136 | 152 | -16 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 131 | 153 | -22 |
Miami Heat
2-3 in last 5
L
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 114 | 128 | -14 | |
| Toronto Raptors | 95 | 121 | -26 | |
| Washington Wizards | 152 | 136 | +16 | |
| Boston Celtics | 129 | 147 | -18 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 119 | 109 | +10 |
Game Analysis
Washington arrives on a three-game losing streak (losses 108-119, 98-129, 115-121) and has allowed consistently high opponent scoring, which aligns with a starters’ average defensive rating of 123.12. Their offense has been uneven, with the five projected starters combining for an average of 11.24 points each and a modest average offensive rating of 105.74, suggesting limited firepower when facing stout defenses.
Miami has two recent losses to Toronto but a dominant 152-136 win over Washington in the last meeting, showing the team’s offensive ceiling. The Heat’s projected starters average a 117.14 offensive rating and a 116.00 defensive rating, with each starter averaging 17.52 points — a clear scoring and efficiency edge. Bam Adebayo’s team defense (111.9) and the trio of Powell/Herro/Wiggins provide matchup problems for Washington’s undermanned defense.
Final Prediction
Miami’s superior offensive efficiency and deeper scoring from the starting five give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Washington can slow Miami’s wings and limit second-chance opportunities — if they can’t, the Heat should cover the spread.
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