NBA 2025-2026: Los Angeles Clippers vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Los Angeles Clippers

Home Team
77.9%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
22.1%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Los Angeles Clippers
PTS 20.6 REB 3.4 AST 5.6 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.0 REB 4.1 AST 4.2 3PM 1.3
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PTS 10.6 REB 4.5 AST 1.7 3PM 1.3
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PTS 26.4 REB 6.6 AST 4.1 3PM 2.9
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PTS 12.0 REB 5.5 AST 1.7 3PM 2.0
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AWAY Golden State Warriors
PTS 23.4 REB 4.2 AST 4.8 3PM 3.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 17.0 REB 4.7 AST 3.7 3PM 2.1
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PTS 8.6 REB 6.1 AST 6.1 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 12.8 REB 4.9 AST 3.2 3PM 1.6
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PTS 17.9 REB 6.5 AST 2.2 3PM 1.6
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Darius Garland
OR
117.6
DR
118.7
PTS
20.2
VS
Stephen Curry
OR
118.3
DR
117.0
PTS
26.6
SG
Kris Dunn
OR
116.6
DR
116.0
PTS
7.3
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
116.1
DR
116.0
PTS
13.9
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
122.1
DR
118.1
PTS
10.3
VS
Draymond Green
OR
104.1
DR
114.9
PTS
8.4
PF
Kawhi Leonard
OR
125.0
DR
112.9
PTS
27.9
VS
Gui Santos
OR
115.2
DR
114.6
PTS
9.2
C
Brook Lopez
OR
101.0
DR
115.3
PTS
8.5
VS
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
109.9
DR
118.4
PTS
16.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Los Angeles Clippers are the predicted winner (77.9% probability). Expected starting five — Los Angeles Clippers: Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Brook Lopez. Expected starting five — Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porziņģis.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 231.28 points, pointing to a high-scoring game and an up-tempo contest with plenty of offense. The projected spread is Home - Away: 4.57, giving the home team roughly a 4.6-point edge heading into tipoff.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 231.3 Most likely outcome: 231 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - Golden State Warriors) 4.6 Most likely outcome: 4 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show falling momentum over recent games, with the Clippers down modestly and the Warriors declining more sharply.

Los Angeles Clippers

1530.8 -6.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Portland Trail Blazers 1530.8 -12.0
2026-04-08 Oklahoma City Thunder 1542.8 -5.9
2026-04-07 Dallas Mavericks 1548.7 +4.7
2026-04-05 Sacramento Kings 1544.0 +6.5
2026-04-02 San Antonio Spurs 1537.5 —

Golden State Warriors

1428.3 -19.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-10 Sacramento Kings 1428.3 -12.0
2026-04-09 Los Angeles Lakers 1440.3 -6.9
2026-04-07 Sacramento Kings 1447.2 +6.5
2026-04-05 Houston Rockets 1440.7 -6.7
2026-04-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1447.4 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Clippers

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 97 116 -19
Oklahoma City Thunder 110 128 -18
Dallas Mavericks 116 103 +13
Sacramento Kings 138 109 +29
San Antonio Spurs 99 118 -19

Golden State Warriors

1-4 in last 5
L L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 118 124 -6
Los Angeles Lakers 103 119 -16
Sacramento Kings 110 105 +5
Houston Rockets 116 117 -1
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 118 -7

Game Analysis

Recent form is bumpy for both clubs. The Clippers are 1-2 over their last three (losses to Portland 97-116 and Oklahoma City 110-128, a win over Dallas 116-103). The Warriors are also 1-2 (losses to Sacramento 118-124 and the Lakers 103-119, with a 110-105 win over Sacramento). Those results suggest inconsistency, but the Clippers’ win over Dallas is a notable rebound. Looking at the expected starting fives, the Clippers’ five average an offensive rating of about 116.46, a defensive rating of about 116.20, and average points made of roughly 14.84. The Warriors’ five average an offensive rating of about 112.72, a defensive rating of about 116.18, and average points made of about 14.90. Kawhi Leonard (OR 125.0, 27.9 PPG) and Stephen Curry (OR 118.3, 26.6 PPG) will be primary drivers; overall the Clippers’ higher average offensive rating is a meaningful edge.

Final Prediction

Clippers get the nod because their starting five profile shows a clearer offensive advantage and they’ve steadied with a recent quality win. Key factor to watch: Kawhi Leonard vs. Stephen Curry’s ability to carry their teams offensively and whether the Warriors can slow the Clippers’ scoring pace.

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