Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-02

Dallas Mavericks

Home Team
89.1%
VS

Sacramento Kings

Away Team
10.9%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Dallas Mavericks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +24.9 Dallas Mavericks
Home-court advantage +7.6 Dallas Mavericks
Season record & ratings +4.2 Dallas Mavericks
Home/road record +3.2 Dallas Mavericks
Recent team form +1.1 Sacramento Kings

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 89% for Dallas Mavericks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Dallas Mavericks
PTS 26.5 REB 7.3 AST 7.0 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.1 REB 8.1 AST 2.7 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.0 REB 4.8 AST 4.7 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.2 REB 4.6 AST 2.2 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.4 REB 8.4 AST 1.9 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Sacramento Kings
PTS 25.7 REB 4.5 AST 5.0 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.8 REB 5.4 AST 1.5 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.4 REB 14.4 AST 5.9 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 7.1 AST 1.7 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.7 REB 4.2 AST 3.1 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cooper Flagg
OR
129.8
DR
102.8
PTS
26.8
VS
Darius Acuff Jr.
OR
99.7
DR
127.7
PTS
26.3
SG
Daniel Gafford
OR
129.2
DR
108.2
PTS
8.5
VS
De'Andre Hunter
OR
109.2
DR
126.0
PTS
14.0
SF
Kyrie Irving
OR
127.2
DR
111.8
PTS
21.4
VS
Domantas Sabonis
OR
130.7
DR
120.2
PTS
16.0
PF
Max Christie
OR
89.5
DR
113.7
PTS
8.3
VS
Precious Achiuwa
OR
104.3
DR
121.2
PTS
12.5
C
P.J. Washington
OR
100.2
DR
113.0
PTS
13.8
VS
Zach LaVine
OR
114.3
DR
126.3
PTS
23.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Dallas is the clear pick, with an 89% chance to win. The expected starters are Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, Kyrie Irving, Max Christie and P.J. Washington for Dallas, and Darius Acuff Jr., De'Andre Hunter, Domantas Sabonis, Precious Achiuwa and Zach LaVine for Sacramento.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is about 234 points combined, pointing to a high-scoring game. Dallas is favored by 11, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.8 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Sacramento Kings) 11.1 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Dallas’s rating has risen over the last five games, while Sacramento’s has fallen, leaving the teams moving in opposite directions.

Dallas Mavericks

1522.3 +20.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-30 Houston Rockets 1522.3 +10.6
2026-10-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1511.7 +12.6
2026-10-26 Miami Heat 1499.1 +10.0
2026-10-24 San Antonio Spurs 1489.1 -12.4
2026-10-23 Indiana Pacers 1501.5 -

Sacramento Kings

1439.8 -38.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Memphis Grizzlies 1439.8 -7.8
2026-10-29 New Orleans Pelicans 1447.6 -10.5
2026-10-27 San Antonio Spurs 1458.1 -10.4
2026-10-25 Memphis Grizzlies 1468.5 -9.8
2026-10-23 Portland Trail Blazers 1478.3 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Dallas Mavericks

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Houston Rockets 116 111 +5
Oklahoma City Thunder 120 96 +24
Miami Heat 113 109 +4
San Antonio Spurs 106 122 -16
Indiana Pacers 121 105 +16

Sacramento Kings

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 105 136 -31
New Orleans Pelicans 120 132 -12
San Antonio Spurs 103 130 -27
Memphis Grizzlies 112 123 -11
Portland Trail Blazers 120 128 -8

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the starting groups: Dallas has stronger scoring and defensive profiles across most of its projected five. Home court and the broader record indicators also favor Dallas, while Sacramento’s recent form is a small counterweight. Flagg leads the listed starters at 27 points per game, and Irving’s 21-point average gives Dallas another scoring option. Sacramento has been outscored heavily during its three-game losing streak, which raises concern about its defense. Sabonis’ strong offensive production gives the Kings a reliable focal point, however.

Final Prediction

Sabonis could make the forecast less comfortable for Dallas if he can turn his offensive strength into consistent scoring against the Mavericks’ frontcourt.

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