Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-02

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
76.4%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
23.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Memphis Grizzlies

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +9.8 Memphis Grizzlies
Home-court advantage +7.6 Memphis Grizzlies
Recent team form +5.1 Memphis Grizzlies
Home/road record +3.0 Memphis Grizzlies

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Memphis Grizzlies. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Memphis Grizzlies
PTS 7.4 REB 6.7 AST 1.5 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.1 REB 9.2 AST 5.5 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.8 REB 8.0 AST 3.0 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.9 REB 4.2 AST 1.5 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.6 REB 4.2 AST 5.1 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 16.7 REB 5.8 AST 5.0 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.8 REB 4.3 AST 3.8 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.4 REB 4.9 AST 1.2 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 4.3 AST 2.7 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.1 REB 5.1 AST 2.8 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Zach Edey
OR
121.8
DR
101.6
PTS
7.0
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
106.0
DR
114.8
PTS
17.8
SG
Cameron Boozer
OR
113.2
DR
103.8
PTS
17.7
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
94.8
DR
113.7
PTS
13.0
SF
Cedric Coward
OR
122.0
DR
98.8
PTS
13.0
VS
Karlo Matković
OR
116.2
DR
105.6
PTS
7.0
PF
Jaylen Wells
OR
132.2
DR
108.0
PTS
12.2
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
109.8
DR
115.0
PTS
14.3
C
Ty Jerome
OR
124.4
DR
110.2
PTS
25.8
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
124.5
DR
108.5
PTS
20.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Memphis is favored at 76 percent, a clear but not overwhelming lean. The expected starters are Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells and Ty Jerome for the Grizzlies, and Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matković, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson for New Orleans.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected 237 combined points suggests a high-scoring game. Memphis is forecast to win by eight, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 237.2 Most likely outcome: 237 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - New Orleans Pelicans) 8.5 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis’ rating has risen steadily, up 39 points over five games, while New Orleans has been nearly flat, ending only slightly above its starting mark.

Memphis Grizzlies

1560.2 +39.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Sacramento Kings 1560.2 +7.9
2026-10-29 Portland Trail Blazers 1552.3 +12.3
2026-10-26 Utah Jazz 1540.0 +9.4
2026-10-25 Sacramento Kings 1530.6 +9.8
2026-10-23 Golden State Warriors 1520.8 -

New Orleans Pelicans

1482.5 +2.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-10-31 Atlanta Hawks 1482.5 +12.5
2026-10-29 Sacramento Kings 1470.0 +10.4
2026-10-28 Denver Nuggets 1459.6 -11.4
2026-10-24 Denver Nuggets 1471.0 -9.0
2026-10-23 Utah Jazz 1480.0 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 136 105 +31
Portland Trail Blazers 124 103 +21
Utah Jazz 110 105 +5
Sacramento Kings 123 112 +11
Golden State Warriors 111 108 +3

New Orleans Pelicans

2-3 in last 5
W W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 121 99 +22
Sacramento Kings 132 120 +12
Denver Nuggets 91 104 -13
Denver Nuggets 135 141 -6
Utah Jazz 119 120 -1

Game Analysis

The starting groups are the clearest separator. Memphis has a broader offensive advantage in the listed lineup, especially at guard, where Ty Jerome’s scoring output stands out against New Orleans’ backcourt. The home setting adds to that edge, and Memphis has backed its momentum with three straight wins. New Orleans has a scoring counter in Zion Williamson and comes in after wins over Atlanta and Sacramento, so its recent results offer reason for confidence. Memphis’ winning streak and sharper rating rise, though, point to the more consistent team right now.

Final Prediction

A standout scoring night from Williamson could give New Orleans a path to keep pace. If Memphis limits that production, its stronger starting group and home advantage favor the Grizzlies.

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