New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-04

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
68.9%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
31.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New Orleans Pelicans

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 New Orleans Pelicans
Season record & ratings +6.8 New Orleans Pelicans
Recent team form +2.0 New Orleans Pelicans
Home/road record +1.8 New Orleans Pelicans

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for New Orleans Pelicans. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 16.0 REB 5.9 AST 5.0 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 4.3 AST 4.3 3PM 1.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.5 REB 5.0 AST 1.5 3PM 1.2
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.4 REB 4.2 AST 2.9 3PM 1.7
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 5.7 AST 3.0 3PM 0.3
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Utah Jazz
PTS 14.2 REB 8.1 AST 2.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.4 REB 5.0 AST 3.1 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.2 REB 7.8 AST 2.1 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.2 REB 5.2 AST 4.9 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.5 REB 5.8 AST 1.9 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
106.0
DR
114.8
PTS
17.8
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
102.7
DR
116.4
PTS
12.1
SG
Jeremiah Fears
OR
92.9
DR
116.4
PTS
12.9
VS
Darryn Peterson
OR
106.1
DR
116.7
PTS
13.4
SF
Karlo Matković
OR
122.5
DR
108.0
PTS
10.0
VS
Jaxson Hayes
OR
124.8
DR
113.0
PTS
8.2
PF
Trey Murphy III
OR
116.7
DR
117.3
PTS
14.9
VS
Keyonte George
OR
100.7
DR
120.4
PTS
19.6
C
Zion Williamson
OR
128.4
DR
111.4
PTS
21.3
VS
Lauri Markkanen
OR
112.2
DR
119.3
PTS
16.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

New Orleans is favored to win, with a 69% chance according to the forecast. The expected Pelicans starters are Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matković, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson. Utah is expected to start Ace Bailey, Darryn Peterson, Jaxson Hayes, Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 229 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game. New Orleans is forecast to win by about six, a meaningful but not overwhelming margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.0 Most likely outcome: 228 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Utah Jazz) 5.7 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New Orleans’ rating has risen over its last five games, while Utah’s has fallen, giving the Pelicans the stronger recent momentum.

New Orleans Pelicans

1494.6 +23.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Memphis Grizzlies 1494.6 +12.1
2026-10-31 Atlanta Hawks 1482.5 +12.5
2026-10-29 Sacramento Kings 1470.0 +10.4
2026-10-28 Denver Nuggets 1459.6 -11.4
2026-10-24 Denver Nuggets 1471.0 -

Utah Jazz

1448.5 -39.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 San Antonio Spurs 1448.5 -8.7
2026-10-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1457.2 -11.0
2026-10-28 San Antonio Spurs 1468.2 -10.6
2026-10-26 Memphis Grizzlies 1478.8 -9.4
2026-10-25 Los Angeles Lakers 1488.2 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 135 134 +1
Atlanta Hawks 121 99 +22
Sacramento Kings 132 120 +12
Denver Nuggets 91 104 -13
Denver Nuggets 135 141 -6

Utah Jazz

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 97 119 -22
Portland Trail Blazers 90 112 -22
San Antonio Spurs 111 117 -6
Memphis Grizzlies 105 110 -5
Los Angeles Lakers 123 132 -9

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest separator in the forecast, reinforced by New Orleans’ stronger season profile and recent form. The Pelicans have won three straight, including a one-point finish against Memphis, while Utah has dropped three in a row. Zion Williamson is New Orleans’ leading listed scorer at 21 points per game, giving the Pelicans a strong option to drive their offense. Keyonte George averages 20 for Utah, and his scoring is one route for the Jazz to keep pace if the Pelicans turn this into an open game.

Final Prediction

Utah’s best chance to upset the forecast is for George to put pressure on New Orleans with his scoring and prevent the Pelicans from controlling the game at home. If he cannot help offset their offensive threat, the Jazz’s recent slide leaves little margin for error.

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