Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-05

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
68.6%
VS

Miami Heat

Away Team
31.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Golden State Warriors

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +9.4 Golden State Warriors
Home-court advantage +7.6 Golden State Warriors
Season record & ratings +3.0 Miami Heat
Recent team form +2.8 Golden State Warriors
Home/road record +1.6 Golden State Warriors

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 69% for Golden State Warriors. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Golden State Warriors
PTS 17.2 REB 5.7 AST 4.3 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.0 REB 5.7 AST 5.6 3PM 0.5
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 28.5 REB 5.3 AST 4.8 3PM 3.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.7 REB 3.4 AST 1.0 3PM 0.9
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.5 REB 7.1 AST 3.8 3PM 2.1
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Miami Heat
PTS 10.2 REB 3.6 AST 1.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.0 REB 8.4 AST 3.3 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.9 REB 3.3 AST 6.3 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.8 REB 12.3 AST 5.6 3PM 0.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.5 REB 2.8 AST 1.4 3PM 3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
125.5
DR
114.2
PTS
17.0
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
99.2
DR
120.9
PTS
9.4
SG
Draymond Green
OR
101.3
DR
113.2
PTS
3.2
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
115.8
DR
113.8
PTS
18.6
SF
Stephen Curry
OR
140.7
DR
114.2
PTS
30.0
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
125.8
DR
121.0
PTS
15.4
PF
Will Richard
OR
97.9
DR
118.6
PTS
4.6
VS
Giannis Antetokounmpo
OR
120.1
DR
114.4
PTS
28.2
C
Yaxel Lendeborg
OR
116.2
DR
118.2
PTS
21.5
VS
Klay Thompson
OR
108.2
DR
123.8
PTS
14.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State is favored at 69%, a clear but not overwhelming lean. The Warriors are expected to start Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Will Richard and Yaxel Lendeborg, while Miami’s expected five is Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Klay Thompson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 244 points, with Golden State favored by eight. That points to a high-scoring game and a modestly comfortable Warriors win rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 243.7 Most likely outcome: 244 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - Miami Heat) 7.5 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, with Golden State’s momentum stronger than Miami’s.

Golden State Warriors

1523.9 +41.3 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Phoenix Suns 1523.9 +8.6
2026-11-01 Los Angeles Clippers 1515.3 +8.9
2026-10-30 Los Angeles Lakers 1506.4 +12.1
2026-10-28 Minnesota Timberwolves 1494.3 +11.7
2026-10-26 Denver Nuggets 1482.6 -

Miami Heat

1481.7 +24.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Los Angeles Clippers 1481.7 +10.0
2026-11-02 Los Angeles Lakers 1471.7 -9.6
2026-10-30 Indiana Pacers 1481.3 +11.5
2026-10-28 Atlanta Hawks 1469.8 +12.5
2026-10-26 Dallas Mavericks 1457.3 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 116 113 +3
Los Angeles Clippers 124 112 +12
Los Angeles Lakers 112 95 +17
Minnesota Timberwolves 119 114 +5
Denver Nuggets 134 114 +20

Miami Heat

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 117 116 +1
Los Angeles Lakers 117 138 -21
Indiana Pacers 145 125 +20
Atlanta Hawks 129 117 +12
Dallas Mavericks 109 113 -4

Game Analysis

The starting groups are the biggest separator in the matchup, with home court providing another lift for Golden State. Miami’s season record and ratings favor the Heat, though, keeping the forecast from being one-sided. The Warriors have won three straight, while Miami has won two of its last three, including a one-point game against the Clippers. Stephen Curry averages 30 points and is the leading scorer among the expected starters. Giannis Antetokounmpo gives Miami a potent counter, averaging 28 points.

Final Prediction

Miami’s clearest route to an upset is Giannis sustaining that scoring level against a Warriors lineup the forecast favors. Golden State’s three-game run and home-court advantage give it the stronger path, but they leave little room for Miami’s primary scorer to take over.

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