Phoenix Suns vs Orlando Magic Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-05

Phoenix Suns

Home Team
36.1%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
63.9%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Orlando Magic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +25.2 Orlando Magic
Home-court advantage +7.6 Phoenix Suns
Recent team form +1.8 Phoenix Suns
Season record & ratings +1.7 Phoenix Suns
Rest & schedule +1.5 Orlando Magic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Orlando Magic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Phoenix Suns
PTS 9.7 REB 6.6 AST 1.4 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.3 REB 4.3 AST 4.2 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.9 REB 5.2 AST 2.9 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.4 REB 4.5 AST 3.0 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.5 REB 7.3 AST 2.6 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
PTS 12.1 REB 9.4 AST 2.2 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.8 REB 6.2 AST 4.7 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.9 REB 4.9 AST 3.1 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.5 REB 7.0 AST 7.4 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.4 REB 3.6 AST 2.3 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Khaman Maluach
OR
111.7
DR
121.3
PTS
7.2
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
124.9
DR
114.0
PTS
12.4
SG
Devin Booker
OR
121.0
DR
130.0
PTS
24.7
VS
Anthony Black
OR
128.0
DR
115.0
PTS
16.5
SF
Dillon Brooks
OR
115.2
DR
127.8
PTS
16.5
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
98.1
DR
118.0
PTS
17.9
PF
Jalen Green
OR
91.5
DR
128.7
PTS
12.8
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
101.7
DR
118.1
PTS
20.3
C
Miles Bridges
OR
122.3
DR
122.5
PTS
17.3
VS
Jase Richardson
OR
100.1
DR
119.6
PTS
5.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Orlando is favored at 64 percent, though the forecast gives the Magic only a narrow advantage. Phoenix is expected to start Khaman Maluach, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Miles Bridges, while Orlando’s expected five is Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner and Jase Richardson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The expected total is 229 points, and the projected margin rounds to zero, with Orlando slightly ahead. That points to a close game with scoring near 229.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 229.0 Most likely outcome: 229 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Orlando Magic) -0.5 Most likely outcome: -1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are falling, with Phoenix losing 38 points over its last five games and Orlando losing 19.5.

Phoenix Suns

1458.2 -38.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Portland Trail Blazers 1458.2 -9.2
2026-11-02 Golden State Warriors 1467.4 -8.6
2026-10-30 Denver Nuggets 1476.0 -11.1
2026-10-26 Oklahoma City Thunder 1487.1 -9.1
2026-10-24 Golden State Warriors 1496.2 -

Orlando Magic

1468.7 -19.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-02 Washington Wizards 1468.7 -10.1
2026-11-01 Boston Celtics 1478.8 -10.4
2026-10-30 Toronto Raptors 1489.2 +11.9
2026-10-28 Toronto Raptors 1477.3 -10.9
2026-10-25 New York Knicks 1488.2 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Phoenix Suns

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Portland Trail Blazers 119 132 -13
Golden State Warriors 113 116 -3
Denver Nuggets 120 127 -7
Oklahoma City Thunder 114 125 -11
Golden State Warriors 131 122 +9

Orlando Magic

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 94 103 -9
Boston Celtics 97 108 -11
Toronto Raptors 121 114 +7
Toronto Raptors 99 129 -30
New York Knicks 111 102 +9

Game Analysis

The expected starting groups are the clearest separator in the forecast. Orlando’s projected lineup has the stronger blend of scoring and defense, while Phoenix’s group has more pronounced defensive weaknesses. Booker is Phoenix’s leading scorer, and Anthony Black’s strong efficiency profile stands out among Orlando’s starters. Phoenix’s home court helps narrow the gap, but it has lost three straight, including a 13-point defeat to Portland. Orlando has also dropped two in a row, so neither team arrives on a strong run. The Suns’ home advantage is a counterweight, but the forecast leans on Orlando’s expected five to make the difference.

Final Prediction

Phoenix can change the outlook if Booker’s scoring carries the offense against Orlando’s stronger projected starting group. If Orlando limits that production, its lineup advantage should hold.

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