Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Dallas Mavericks

Home Team
60.6%
VS

Utah Jazz

Away Team
39.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Dallas Mavericks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent team form +8.2 Utah Jazz
Home-court advantage +7.6 Dallas Mavericks
Starting five +7.2 Dallas Mavericks
Home/road record +2.0 Dallas Mavericks
Season record & ratings +1.9 Dallas Mavericks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Dallas Mavericks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Dallas Mavericks
PTS 23.2 REB 7.0 AST 6.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.9 REB 7.3 AST 2.3 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.1 REB 4.7 AST 4.5 3PM 3.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.6 REB 3.7 AST 1.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.5 REB 7.5 AST 2.0 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Utah Jazz
PTS 13.3 REB 6.5 AST 1.8 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.8 REB 4.2 AST 3.1 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.3 REB 6.8 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.6 REB 4.3 AST 4.9 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.0 REB 5.4 AST 1.8 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cooper Flagg
OR
118.7
DR
107.6
PTS
24.3
VS
Ace Bailey
OR
101.0
DR
115.9
PTS
12.5
SG
Daniel Gafford
OR
122.5
DR
109.1
PTS
9.1
VS
Darryn Peterson
OR
104.8
DR
116.8
PTS
12.6
SF
Kyrie Irving
OR
124.2
DR
112.2
PTS
22.7
VS
Jaxson Hayes
OR
114.3
DR
112.1
PTS
7.3
PF
Max Christie
OR
76.7
DR
112.4
PTS
7.1
VS
Keyonte George
OR
103.6
DR
118.6
PTS
22.0
C
P.J. Washington
OR
102.1
DR
114.4
PTS
14.5
VS
Lauri Markkanen
OR
112.6
DR
117.3
PTS
17.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Dallas is favoured to win, with a 61% probability. The expected Dallas starters are Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, Kyrie Irving, Max Christie and P.J. Washington, while Utah is expected to start Ace Bailey, Darryn Peterson, Jaxson Hayes, Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 221 points combined, with Dallas winning by about eight. That points to a moderately high-scoring game and a comfortable Mavericks result rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 220.9 Most likely outcome: 220 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Utah Jazz) 8.4 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Dallas’ rating has been mostly stable with a slight rise over the last five games, while Utah’s has fallen steadily.

Dallas Mavericks

1500.3 +1.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 San Antonio Spurs 1500.3 -8.4
2026-11-02 Sacramento Kings 1508.7 -13.6
2026-10-30 Houston Rockets 1522.3 +10.6
2026-10-28 Oklahoma City Thunder 1511.7 +12.6
2026-10-26 Miami Heat 1499.1 -

Utah Jazz

1440.4 -38.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 New Orleans Pelicans 1440.4 -8.1
2026-11-02 San Antonio Spurs 1448.5 -8.7
2026-10-31 Portland Trail Blazers 1457.2 -11.0
2026-10-28 San Antonio Spurs 1468.2 -10.6
2026-10-26 Memphis Grizzlies 1478.8 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 111 112 -1
Sacramento Kings 100 115 -15
Houston Rockets 116 111 +5
Oklahoma City Thunder 120 96 +24
Miami Heat 113 109 +4

Utah Jazz

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 113 120 -7
San Antonio Spurs 97 119 -22
Portland Trail Blazers 90 112 -22
San Antonio Spurs 111 117 -6
Memphis Grizzlies 105 110 -5

Game Analysis

Home court and the expected starting five are the clearest supports for Dallas. The Mavericks have a stronger scoring pair in Flagg and Irving, while Utah’s starters have several lower scoring averages, leaving more pressure on its leading scorers. Flagg averages 24 points, the highest figure among the expected starters, and Keyonte George averages 22 for Utah. George gives the Jazz a potent scoring option, but Dallas’ recent results include a one-point loss to San Antonio, while Utah has dropped three straight, each by at least seven points.

Final Prediction

Utah’s best route to changing the forecast is for George to convert his scoring advantage into a bigger night and keep the Jazz close. If Dallas’ more productive starting group controls the game at home, the projected margin is within reach.

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