Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
61.5%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
38.5%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Memphis Grizzlies

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Memphis Grizzlies
Recent team form +4.5 Memphis Grizzlies
Season record & ratings +2.7 Oklahoma City Thunder

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Memphis Grizzlies. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Memphis Grizzlies
PTS 7.5 REB 7.2 AST 1.5 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.7 REB 7.9 AST 4.9 3PM 1.9
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.2 REB 7.4 AST 3.0 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.7 REB 3.8 AST 1.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.4 REB 4.3 AST 4.5 3PM 2.3
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 18.4 REB 4.4 AST 3.7 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.5 REB 4.4 AST 3.4 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.6 REB 9.3 AST 2.6 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.9 REB 4.1 AST 1.3 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.7 REB 4.4 AST 4.2 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Zach Edey
OR
121.3
DR
104.6
PTS
7.4
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
113.1
DR
109.6
PTS
17.8
SG
Cameron Boozer
OR
108.8
DR
107.1
PTS
16.8
VS
Alex Caruso
OR
164.6
DR
103.6
PTS
8.8
SF
Cedric Coward
OR
123.4
DR
102.6
PTS
14.0
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
118.6
DR
106.0
PTS
8.1
PF
Jaylen Wells
OR
123.2
DR
110.8
PTS
11.1
VS
Kenrich Williams
OR
168.6
DR
114.8
PTS
6.9
C
Ty Jerome
OR
122.4
DR
112.1
PTS
27.4
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
115.6
DR
112.1
PTS
30.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Memphis is favored at 62%, a moderate lean in a matchup projected to remain competitive. The Grizzlies are expected to start Zach Edey, Cameron Boozer, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells and Ty Jerome, while Oklahoma City is expected to start Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kenrich Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 226 points, with Memphis favored by six. That points to a close game with scoring in the mid-220s, rather than a low-scoring grind or a runaway.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.2 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Oklahoma City Thunder) 5.8 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have fallen slightly over the last five games, with Memphis down 4.4 points and Oklahoma City down 3.2.

Memphis Grizzlies

1535.6 -4.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Indiana Pacers 1535.6 -12.5
2026-11-02 New Orleans Pelicans 1548.1 -12.1
2026-10-31 Sacramento Kings 1560.2 +7.9
2026-10-29 Portland Trail Blazers 1552.3 +12.3
2026-10-26 Utah Jazz 1540.0 -

Oklahoma City Thunder

1535.5 -3.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Cleveland Cavaliers 1535.5 +9.4
2026-11-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1526.1 +10.8
2026-10-31 Houston Rockets 1515.3 -10.7
2026-10-28 Dallas Mavericks 1526.0 -12.7
2026-10-26 Phoenix Suns 1538.7 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Indiana Pacers 103 107 -4
New Orleans Pelicans 134 135 -1
Sacramento Kings 136 105 +31
Portland Trail Blazers 124 103 +21
Utah Jazz 110 105 +5

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Cleveland Cavaliers 124 116 +8
Cleveland Cavaliers 117 112 +5
Houston Rockets 98 119 -21
Dallas Mavericks 96 120 -24
Phoenix Suns 125 114 +11

Game Analysis

Home court is the strongest support for Memphis, and the projection also leans toward the Grizzlies on recent form. Their results have been mixed, but they scored 136 and 134 points in two of their last three games, showing the offense can produce in volume. The 134-point effort ended in a one-point loss, however, and Memphis also fell to Indiana. Oklahoma City has the stronger season-record and rating profile, and has won two straight after a loss to Houston. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 30-point average makes him the top scoring threat among the listed starters. Ty Jerome’s 27-point average gives Memphis a potent counter, so the home side will need to pair its scoring with enough stops.

Final Prediction

Oklahoma City’s strongest route to overturning the forecast is for Gilgeous-Alexander to turn his scoring into a sustained advantage, forcing Memphis to keep pace rather than control the game at home.

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