Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
12.7%
VS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Away Team
87.3%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Cleveland Cavaliers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +40.5 Cleveland Cavaliers
Home-court advantage +7.6 Charlotte Hornets
Season record & ratings +5.5 Cleveland Cavaliers
Recent team form +2.1 Cleveland Cavaliers
Home/road record +1.1 Cleveland Cavaliers

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 87% for Cleveland Cavaliers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Charlotte Hornets
PTS 10.5 REB 3.0 AST 2.4 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.8 REB 3.9 AST 3.2 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.9 REB 9.4 AST 2.4 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.9 REB 7.9 AST 2.6 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.4 REB 3.9 AST 2.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Cleveland Cavaliers
PTS 21.2 REB 5.0 AST 4.8 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.0 REB 7.0 AST 3.0 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.5 REB 4.7 AST 4.3 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.0 REB 6.6 AST 1.4 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.3 REB 4.8 AST 2.2 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Coby White
OR
65.3
DR
130.0
PTS
6.0
VS
Donovan Mitchell
OR
117.9
DR
113.4
PTS
24.0
SG
Grayson Allen
OR
111.0
DR
118.4
PTS
14.1
VS
Evan Mobley
OR
131.2
DR
113.7
PTS
18.4
SF
Moussa Diabaté
OR
132.1
DR
110.7
PTS
8.9
VS
James Harden
OR
109.6
DR
114.8
PTS
15.7
PF
Naz Reid
OR
98.7
DR
113.7
PTS
16.6
VS
Jarrett Allen
OR
118.6
DR
112.1
PTS
13.2
C
Sion James
OR
98.0
DR
118.6
PTS
5.8
VS
Peyton Watson
OR
100.1
DR
110.8
PTS
11.2
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Cleveland is favored to win, with an 87% chance in the forecast, largely on the strength of its expected starting group. Charlotte is expected to start Coby White, Grayson Allen, Moussa Diabaté, Naz Reid and Sion James, while Cleveland’s starters are Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden, Jarrett Allen and Peyton Watson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 216 points, pointing to a relatively low-scoring game. Cleveland is expected to win by about 11, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 216.2 Most likely outcome: 216 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Cleveland Cavaliers) -10.6 Most likely outcome: -11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings have fallen over their last five games, with Charlotte’s decline steeper than Cleveland’s.

Charlotte Hornets

1450.7 -42.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Boston Celtics 1450.7 -11.4
2026-11-04 Brooklyn Nets 1462.1 -10.5
2026-11-02 Detroit Pistons 1472.6 -11.5
2026-10-31 Philadelphia 76ers 1484.1 -9.4
2026-10-30 Washington Wizards 1493.5 -

Cleveland Cavaliers

1503.0 -18.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 New York Knicks 1503.0 -11.7
2026-11-06 Philadelphia 76ers 1514.7 +13.5
2026-11-04 Oklahoma City Thunder 1501.2 -9.5
2026-11-02 Oklahoma City Thunder 1510.7 -10.7
2026-10-31 Milwaukee Bucks 1521.4 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Boston Celtics 80 119 -39
Brooklyn Nets 104 114 -10
Detroit Pistons 91 124 -33
Philadelphia 76ers 104 109 -5
Washington Wizards 79 95 -16

Cleveland Cavaliers

2-3 in last 5
L W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New York Knicks 97 109 -12
Philadelphia 76ers 119 95 +24
Oklahoma City Thunder 116 124 -8
Oklahoma City Thunder 112 117 -5
Milwaukee Bucks 136 111 +25

Game Analysis

The largest separation in the forecast is the starting five. Cleveland has more scoring support across its listed starters, with Mobley standing out as a productive option. Charlotte’s group has less overall scoring output to lean on. Charlotte’s home floor offers some counterweight, but its three-game losing streak includes two defeats by more than 30 points. Cleveland has also been uneven, losing two of its last three, though its win over Philadelphia shows it can still produce a strong result.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s clearest route to changing the forecast is to make home court count and get more from its starters than their recent results suggest. If Cleveland’s greater scoring depth shows up, the projected gap will be difficult for the Hornets to close.

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